Tech billionaire and head of the Division of Authorities Effectivity, Elon Musk, with United States President Donald Trump, and Musk’s son X Æ A-12 within the Oval Workplace on Tuesday. Picture: @elonmusk
Why is Donald Trump so invested in South Africa’s Expropriation Act?
He isn’t. The true cause behind the US president’s curiosity in South Africa lies in a posh net of worldwide dynamics: Elon Musk’s Starlink’s enlargement, the Worldwide Court docket of Justice (ICJ) case, Brics plus and America’s efforts to counter the worldwide push for dedollarisation.
It’s not about land, neither is it about Afrikaners. It’s about shrinking South Africa’s affect on the worldwide stage and limiting efforts to reshape the world financial order.
South Africa’s resolution to carry a case towards Israel on the ICJ, accusing it of genocide towards the Palestinians, has been hailed as a daring ethical stance by some and criticised as a politically motivated transfer by others.
Lengthy earlier than the 7 October 2023 assault, South African activists had popularised the hashtag #ApartheidIsrael, drawing parallels between Israel’s insurance policies and South Africa’s apartheid previous.
Nonetheless, for nations on the opposite facet of the talk, the ICJ case displays South Africa’s ambition to say itself as a frontrunner within the International South, notably because it assumes the G20 presidency and seeks to reform the worldwide monetary structure.
Although the International South may view South Africa’s ICJ transfer as a needed problem to impunity, International North nations see it as an overreach that might pressure diplomatic relations.
The Israel-Palestine battle has turn into a proxy battle between values of a multipolar world and Western unilateralism.
Occasions escalated when Trump gained the US presidency, once more. Throughout Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s current state go to to the White Home, Trump reiterated his 2019 Peace and Prosperity Plan to annex Gaza and resettle Palestinians elsewhere.
The thought of annexing Gaza, which might contain vital displacement of Palestinians, has been met with worldwide condemnation from the UN, China, nations within the Center East, Germany, the UK and France.
The potential annexation of Gaza would have far-reaching implications and additional complicate efforts towards a two-state resolution. Sarcastically, Trump is keen to suggest what may very well be described as a land seize in Gaza whereas sanctioning South Africa’s average land Expropriation Act.
In mild of South Africa’s land reform, Trump subsequently introduced plans to prioritise the resettlement of South African farmers, notably Afrikaners, as refugees within the US. Trump alleged, with out substantiation, land “confiscation” and the dangerous therapy of “sure ethnic teams” throughout the nation.
These current strikes by Trump can solely be interpreted as retribution towards nations that help the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions motion towards Israel.
If South Africa caves in to strain and withdraws its help for the Palestinians, it may discourage different nations from standing as much as Western hegemony.
In his State of the Nation deal with, President Cyril Ramaphosa reiterated the nation’s help for Palestine and said his administration wouldn’t be deterred nor bullied.
It’s but to be seen how South Africa will reply to additional strain, particularly when the African Development and Alternative Act (Agoa) expires in 2027. Presently, Agoa commerce exports to the US quantity to $14 billion, making it a major a part of South Africa’s commerce relations.
In early February 2025, Trump introduced a halt to US funding to South Africa beneath the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Aid (Pepfar).
Whereas the US solely funds 17% of South Africa’s HIV/Aids programme, the choice has led to confusion and concern amongst healthcare organisations, activists and the sufferers who depend on these companies.
The abrupt withdrawal of help is one other signal that South Africa has misplaced favour with the Individuals and is now considered as a foe as a substitute of a strategic ally.
South African politicians are certainly frightened in regards to the nation’s standing beneath Agoa and have made plans to ship a delegation to fix relations with the North American superpower.
However rigidity stays excessive, particularly after Minister of Mineral Assets and Power Gwede Mantashe recommended that South Africa ought to rethink exporting minerals to the US in response to current sanctions.
The US will in all probability do the identical and solely rethink renewing South Africa’s Agoa standing based mostly on the nation’s stance on the ICJ case, dedollarisation inside Brics and even black financial empowerment legal guidelines.
Musk’s efforts to increase Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite tv for pc web service, to South Africa have been met with resistance because the nation asserts its capacity to control international investments.
Starlink guarantees to bridge the digital divide in South Africa by offering high-speed web to underserved areas but in addition seeks to compete with the Chinese language firm Huawei, which has a longtime relationship with the state freight and rail firm, Transnet.
Critics argue that Starlink may undermine native suppliers and provides Musk undue affect over the nation’s communications infrastructure.
The Impartial Communications Authority of South Africa has raised issues about competitors, information privateness and nationwide safety. In response, it’s reviewing the satellite tv for pc companies licensing framework, which may complicate Starlink’s entry into the South African market.
The South African-born billionaire has expressed frustration over the nation’s BEE legal guidelines, which require Starlink to cede 30% fairness possession to native traditionally deprived enterprise companions.
In the meantime, South Africa’s relationship with China, its largest buying and selling associate, continues to develop. South Africa has set a March deadline for Taiwan to maneuver its de facto embassy out of Pretoria in help of the one-China coverage.
Though calls throughout the Brics group of creating nations to forsake the greenback stay muted, the misuse of the US Swift system to sanction nations continues to be a priority.
Moreover, South Africa’s non-aligned stance on the Russia-Ukraine battle has strengthened its international coverage strategic autonomy, a lot to the frustration of Western powers.
These geopolitical dynamics type a posh net that might delegitimise South Africa’s standing within the international neighborhood.
Not solely has South Africa championed the African Agenda throughout the G20 however the nation has additionally referred to as for a overview of worldwide monetary establishments such because the World Financial institution and Worldwide Financial Fund.
Senator Marco Rubio’s publish on X calling for a US boycott of the G20 summit beneath South Africa’s presidency is yet one more try and isolate and discredit the nation on the worldwide stage.
Rubio has gone as far as to refuse to attend the G20 International Ministers’ Assembly in February, citing the summit’s theme as resembling a DEI (range, fairness and inclusion) coverage that has been repealed beneath the Trump administration.
South African Minister of Justice and Constitutional Improvement Ronald Lamola responded to Rubio’s remarks by emphasising the nation’s dedication to multilateralism, stating South Africa is a sovereign nation.
The US G20 presidency in 2026 provides one other layer of uncertainty to South Africa’s worldwide standing. It’s extremely possible that Trump will skip the December Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg, together with the G20 handover, simply as he did when he handed the presidency to Biden.
Moreover, Trump’s proposed tariffs are anticipated to drive up inflation, making it even more durable for the South African Reserve Financial institution to maintain home inflation about 4% whereas striving for a 3% progress goal.
How will South Africa navigate the diplomatic terrain, the place dominant powers search to overtly affect the nation’s stance on rigidity between the East and the West?
South Africa can’t stay impartial nor non-aligned endlessly and must make robust choices and even stronger pronouncements on geopolitical occasions.
Nkateko Joseph Mabasa is a author, local weather advocate and coverage analyst.