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Pricey readers, good Sunday morning!
As Brussels braces itself for a packed ministerial and summit week, two essential themes will – unsurprisingly – overshadow a lot of the talks: Ukraine and the escalating tensions within the Center East.
In right now’s version:
- The challenges dealing with incoming European Council President Antonio Costa
- EU eyes two decisive elections in its neighbourhood
- NATO appears to be like to outline its future relationship with Russia
When European Council President-elect Antonio Costa takes over the reins on 1 December, he may have his work minimize out for him.
Over the previous months, Costa has been travelling throughout EU member states, holding casual talks with leaders to have ticked the packing containers of all 27 earlier than his time period formally begins.
And Costa’s plate for the subsequent 5 years will probably be greater than full.
Ukraine is anticipated to stay the Union’s primary precedence, however Kyiv is dealing with a tough second in Russia’s battle in opposition to the nation.
Whereas the EU has offered unprecedented unity on Ukraine help – admittedly with some hiccups – the subsequent few years are prone to see the necessity to mediate between continued help for Kyiv’s imaginative and prescient of the ‘day after’ and elevated pushes for potential appeasement in direction of Russia.
The sense in Brussels is that tough decisions must be made.
The primary check of Costa’s management will come proper initially of his time period, solely weeks after the US presidential elections, with a potential return of former Republican President Donald Trump to the White Home. Trump has repeatedly introduced he would try and convey peace to Ukraine.
And whereas Costa believes in robust transatlantic ties, the EU’s war-gaming on a possible Trump victory guarantees some work forward.
For that reason, Costa can be prone to look into reinforcing engagement with third nations and growing relationships with a few of them to win the ‘battle of affords’ in opposition to Russia, China and different international powers.
Enlargement is anticipated to stay a key precedence, with member states and officers adamant to not frustrate the expectations of the EU hopefuls which were raised with the declared 2030 accession objective.
However whereas there’s robust momentum to convey new members – and a few of them, resembling probably Montenegro, are prepared to hitch sooner – the ring of fireplace within the neighbourhood retains simmering. Political instability and overseas interference in a number of the newer hopefuls, like Georgia and Moldova, in addition to safety within the Caucasus, are prone to stay an issue.
A giant chunk of Costa’s presidency will deal with how the EU can improve its competitiveness and make investments extra in defence.
Whereas EU member states appear to largely agree with former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s analysis, the problem of discovering the cash and implementing these concepts stays.
Finally, nevertheless, the key problem for Costa will probably be how he manages to maintain EU leaders’ unity and interinstitutional relations on good phrases.
Ties between his predecessor, Charles Michel, and European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen weren’t nice, typically hampering the Union’s potential to talk with one voice.
EU diplomats and officers imagine it will not be the identical with the brand new tandem. There may be already speak of pooling bilateral conferences at main worldwide summits – the place potential.
Nonetheless, regardless of the EU treaties being clear on overseas coverage competencies, ‘gray areas’ will stay and probably provide room for battle between establishments.
EU’s subsequent Chief Diplomat, Kaja Kallas, already has a to-do listing relating to ensuring to ‘do extra with much less’ finances and capability, and member states jealously guarding their pursuits.
An growing variety of diplomats and officers are rooting for each Costa and Kallas to push again in opposition to a possible energy seize on overseas coverage issues by von der Leyen.
EU IN THE WORLD
SUMMIT WEEK | A key theme all through all speak codecs this week – overseas, vitality ministers and EU leaders – will probably be the best way to present Ukraine with adequate help to face what everybody expects to be a troublesome winter.
On the Center East entrance, there’s little the bloc’s leaders can do to reign into the tense scenario. However anticipate extra on humanitarian assist for each Gaza and Lebanon. EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell has warned of “disastrous penalties” if Israel’s Knesset passes a invoice which might outlaw the UN company for Palestinian refugees from working in Israel.
Because the first-ever summit between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will happen subsequent week, Europeans are eyeing nearer ties on regional safety and financial points.
ORBAN WOES | After this week’s Strasbourg showdown, Hungary’s upcoming November summits threaten to be overshadowed by rising discontent amongst EU member states over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s controversial diplomatic strikes.
LEBANON AID | Within the absence of a Western-brokered cease-fire in Lebanon, Brussels has began growing measures to strengthen the nation’s political buildings to assist Beirut combat Hezbollah.
WIDER EUROPE
UKRAINE LOAN | Whereas earlier this week Hungary pledged to put the brakes on the EU’s €35 billion mortgage for Ukraine till the US presidential election, the bloc’s member states discovered a approach to bypass Budapest’s refusal to increase the sanctions renewal interval holding Russian frozen property from six to 36 months.
TOUGHER TONE | As Georgia prepares for decisive parliamentary elections on 26 October, EU leaders are anticipated to remind Tbilisi ‘to not reverse’ its present pro-European course, in response to draft summit conclusions seen by Euractiv.
INVESTMENT PLAN | With solely per week earlier than decisive elections on the long run course of Moldova, European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen offered a hefty EU progress and funding plan for the nation.
DEFENCE BRIEFING
NATO-RUSSIA | Subsequent week, NATO is ready to carry its first high-level dialogue on defining its relationship with Russia, with a view to reaching a standard and unilateral place by subsequent summer season.
EPF PUSH | EU26 member states may make voluntary contributions to unlock €6.6 billion price of army assist for Ukraine, bypassing Hungary and its continued blockade, an inside doc by the EU’s diplomatic service (EEAS), seen by Euractiv, has proposed.
KUBILIUS HEARING | European Commissioner-designate Andrius Kubilius must reply programme-specific questions on lowering dependencies and making Europe’s defence trade extra aggressive on the world stage.
EDA RACE | Three names, together with the high-profile former Dutch defence minister, have emerged as contenders in a race to find out the long run course of the European Defence Company (EDA) at a time when its future function stays unclear.
Rue d’Arlon, a quiet road connecting the European Parliament and the Schuman roundabout, near the European Fee’s Berlaymont constructing, will quickly host the company’s future headquarters.
WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING
ON OUR RADAR NEXT WEEK
- EU Overseas Ministers meet to debate Ukraine, Center East, EU-UK ties
| Monday, 14 October 2024 | Luxembourg - EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council
| Monday, 14 October 2024 | Luxembourg - European Parliament’s AFET Committee to debate Tunisia, CFSP report
| Monday, 14 October 2024 | Brussels, Belgium
- Berlin Course of Anniversary Summit with Western Balkan leaders
| Monday, 14 October 2024 | Berlin, Germany - UN Safety Council holds closed-door assembly on Lebanon
| Monday, 14 October 2024 | New York, United Nations
- EU Power Ministers meet to debate Ukraine’s winter preparedness
| Tuesday, 15 October 2024 | Luxembourg
- Second Intergovernmental Convention (IGC) with Albania to open first negotiating chapter
| Tuesday, 15 October 2024 | Luxembourg
- EU-Gulf Cooperation Council first-ever leaders’ summit
| Wednesday, 16 October 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - EU Summit on Ukraine, Center East, migration
| Thu-Fri, 17-18 October 2024 | Brussels, Belgium
- NATO Defence Ministers meet
| Thu-Fri, 17-18 October 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - US President Biden visits Germany
| Thu-Fri, 17-18 October 2024 | Berlin, Germany - G7 Defence Ministers meet
| Fri-Solar, 18-20 October 2024 | Naples, Italy
- Moldovan presidential election + EU referendum
| Sunday, 20 October 2024 | Chisinau, Moldova
PREVIOUS EDITIONS
[Edited by Martina Monti]