I need to begin off by saying that I used to be devastated — devastated — to study that Nolan Arenado reportedly vetoed a commerce to the Houston Astros. I suppose it could’ve made some baseball sense, as Alex Bregman’s departure leaves a emptiness at third base, and new acquisition Isaac Paredes may simply slide throughout the diamond to first. Plus, Arenado is a three-time Nationwide League house run chief with an extended historical past of hitting the ball within the air and to the pull facet. Certainly he’d discover one thing to love in regards to the Crawford Packing containers.
However principally, I wished this to occur as a result of I had a joke lined up.
In my time at FanGraphs, I’ve developed a fame for stretching the boundaries of style and sense in show copy. Often, after I produce a very odious pun, somebody will reply: “How lengthy have you ever been sitting on that one?” Imagine it or not, the reply is sort of all the time a matter of minutes. I try to make bespoke, handcrafted groaners and forehead-slappers recent to order.
However on uncommon events, I do write a pun prematurely and maintain it again till the precise second. This isn’t how I often work, principally as a result of I lack the required endurance and restraint. Like a toddler who’s happy with the worm he picked up off the sidewalk, I often need to share what I’ve received proper now.
So after I inform you I’ve been ready on the precise second to make use of “Nationwide Arenadics and House Administration” for 10 full years, I would like you to understand how a lot effort that took. They usually teased me, dangled the potential of Arenado enjoying in Houston, mere miles from the Johnson Spaceflight Middle, for a group with a space-derived nickname… after which Arenado himself snatched it away.
I’m disconsolate. Please maintain all my calls.
Even with out the hilarious NASA joke, Arenado has been one of many most-discussed gamers this offseason, as a result of the Cardinals certain appear keen to maneuver him. A mere 24 months in the past, that will’ve been no drawback. Arenado was 31, coming off a season of a 149 wRC+ and seven.2 WAR, each profession highs.
And “profession excessive” means extra for Arenado than it does for many gamers. Along with his offensive accomplishments, he began his profession with 10 straight Gold Glove seasons, incomes 44.8 WAR by means of 2022. A 31-year-old with that CV turns into a shoo-in for the Corridor of Fame with any type of affordable hang-around section.
Sadly, age does to baseball gamers what nationwide enlargement does to regional quick meals chains. Arenado is at the moment two-thirds of the best way by means of a nine-year, $275 million contract that began in 2019. Examine Arenado’s efficiency throughout his final 4 full seasons in Colorado — that are consultant of the participant he was when he earned that contract — to his first two seasons in St. Louis, to his most up-to-date two seasons.
What Walks on 4 Legs within the Morning, Two Legs at Noon, Three Legs within the Night, and 6.8% of the Time Over the Previous Two Years?
| Years | G | PA | HR | BB% | Okay% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-19 | 158 | 678 | 39 | 9.8% | 15.6% | .304 | .372 | .575 | 130 | 24.1 | 13.5 | 6.0 |
| 2021-22 | 153 | 637 | 32 | 8.1% | 13.2% | .274 | .335 | .514 | 131 | 23.2 | 10.7 | 5.8 |
| 2023-24 | 148 | 624 | 21 | 6.8% | 15.5% | .269 | .320 | .427 | 104 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 2.9 |
All stats are seasonal averages
It nonetheless says Hoagiefest on the signal, however you and I each know that the standard of the bread went within the crapper when Wawa began opening shops in Florida. Equally, it nonetheless says Arenado on the jersey, however the numbers are way more Joey Ortiz-y.
Arenado remains to be a great defender, however now not the man who drew comparisons to Scott Rolen and Brooks Robinson. Extra worryingly, the ability that made him a star in Colorado goes, going gone. Even after shifting from the arid, skinny air of Denver to the muggy, thick ambiance of Mark Twain Nation, Arenado hit 34 homers in 2021 and 30 in 2022. Then 26 in 2023, and solely 16 within the marketing campaign that simply ended.
A one-year blip? I feel not. In 2024, 42 third basemen logged at the very least 300 plate appearances within the majors. Arenado was thirty sixth in HardHit%, one spot behind Ildemaro Vargas and simply two spots forward of Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Now, Paredes was fortieth amongst third basemen in HardHit%, and I simply wrote that he may hit 30 homers subsequent yr. That is primarily based Paredes’ batted ball profile being properly suited to a house park the place the left area wall is so shut the batter can odor what the followers within the first row of the Crawford Packing containers are consuming. So perhaps Arenado may do one thing related.
There’s a few of that in Arenado’s recreation. Paredes was first amongst certified hitters in pull fee on fly balls in 2024; Arenado was nineteenth. But it surely’s extra possible than not that Arenado’s final 30-homer season is already up to now. Whichever group trades for him is getting a median hitter who defends the place properly and doesn’t strike out a lot, however not an MVP candidate.
As motivated because the Cardinals are to get off of Arenado’s contract earlier than everybody finds out about this growth, they’re apparently prepared to make allowances. Of their report on Arenado’s veto of a commerce to the Astros, Mark Feinsand, John Denton, and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported that the Cardinals are prepared to pay down some — however not all — of Arenado’s remaining contract.
The sticker value of these three years is $74 million: $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027, with $12 million of that deferred. The Rockies are already liable for $5 million in every of the following two seasons, by advantage of the commerce that despatched Arenado to St. Louis within the first place. And in accordance with the MLB.com report, the Cardinals have been prepared to ship between $15 million and $20 million to Houston to melt the blow.
All informed, that lowers the sensible value of Arenado’s contract to someplace within the low $40 million vary over three years. If Arenado’s a median third baseman over that point, that’s a positive-value proposition.
So the Astros appeared to assume, however sadly, Arenado didn’t need to go there. Denton reported through the Winter Conferences that Arenado has six groups on his… I suppose you possibly can name it a Sure-Commerce Listing. These six: The Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Phillies, Mets, and Purple Sox.
The Padres and Purple Sox are extraordinarily, extraordinarily set at third base for the following three seasons. The Phillies even have an incumbent All-Star at third, Alec Bohm, and although he’s change into the autumn man for his or her first-round exit, Bohm is best and cheaper than Arenado. I don’t see the Phillies including Arenado until Bohm will get traded first. Max Muncy in all probability wouldn’t be enjoying third base for the Dodgers in a great world, however with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman within the lineup, that’s the place Muncy will stay. The Angels have Anthony Rendon beneath contract for 2 extra seasons — as a lot as they’ve tried to make him vanish by means of telekinesis — although his damage historical past and detached manufacturing when wholesome makes Arenado a extra believable addition there.
That’s in all probability why Arenado has reportedly volunteered to maneuver to first base as a way to facilitate a commerce. However there’s no level in buying and selling for Arenado in any respect if he have been solely going to play first base. A 104 wRC+ is appropriate for a 3rd baseman, particularly a great defender. Not a lot for a primary baseman. Particularly not at a price of $15 million a yr, plus the prospects required to amass him.
So the window of potentialities for an Arenado commerce at the moment requires one of many following: The Phillies commerce Bohm; the Mets transfer Mark Vientos to first base and don’t re-sign Pete Alonso; the Purple Sox transfer Rafael Devers to first, which might require buying and selling at the very least one in every of Triston Casas or Masataka Yoshida; or for the Angels to surrender on Rendon.
There are a number of outs, however every of them requires supplementary strikes — in some instances, a fairly important roster shakeup for a group with restricted commerce capital — and Arenado actually isn’t the type of participant you progress heaven and earth to amass anymore. That’s on high of the wage dedication, which is substantial even when the Cardinals and Rockies are chipping in, plus the prospects essential to make the commerce within the first place. (Assuming this isn’t a straight wage dump just like the Cody Bellinger commerce.)
Looks like it’d simply be simpler to signal Bregman.
Arenado labored onerous to place himself ready to ask for that no-trade clause within the first place, and he’s entitled to make use of it nonetheless he sees match. However getting him out of St. Louis was going to require a good bit of needle-threading even beneath perfect circumstances, and I don’t see a path ahead until he opens up his checklist. Which, for the file, is what I feel will occur.
So perhaps hope shouldn’t be useless, and I’ll get to make use of that NASA joke in any case.