I used to be writing from the guts. When the Nationals designated Victor Robles for project again in Could, I wrote about what it was prefer to watch for him to make it to the large leagues; after which, as soon as he arrived, to attend for him to show right into a star; after which, when it turned clear that he wasn’t going to show right into a star, to attend for him to show right into a stable contributor; after which, because the probability of that consequence grew increasingly more faint, simply to attend.
Followers reserve a particular form of affection for gamers like Robles. They don’t do it on function; it’s simply how individuals are likely to work. Superstars, with their dependable excellence, are simple to like. They’re huge, heat Labrador retrievers with their tails waggling like Gary Sheffield’s bat as they wait impatiently so that you can open the entrance door each evening. They provide you precisely what you need, and the love they encourage is gorgeous and easy. After they transfer on to a different group, the loss you are feeling is deep, sure, however its edges are clearly outlined as a result of one thing pure has been taken from you.
Once you’ve been watching and ready and hoping for a participant to determine issues out for the higher a part of the last decade, the sentiments concerned are so much messier. Even when your love and your loss aren’t as profound, their edges are much more ragged. You’ve spent years pinballing between highs and lows, hopes and fears, nervousness and pleasure and despair, typically abruptly. In different phrases, it’s much more like actual life and actual love. By the point a participant like that strikes on, you’ve invested manner an excessive amount of of your well-being in them to easily cease caring. It’s laborious to think about a single Nationals fan anyplace who wasn’t rooting for Robles to lastly determine issues out as soon as the Mariners gave him the change of surroundings he so clearly wanted, who wasn’t really comfortable to see him get off to a scorching begin in Seattle. However all of us have our limits.
Again on August 6, over at Baseball Prospectus, Mikey Ajeto broke down all of the mechanical changes that Robles has made since he joined Seattle. (Sure, the identical Mikey Ajeto who writes completely about pitchers. Truthfully, the largest miracle that Robles has carried out isn’t magically going supernova the second that he turned the W on his hat the wrong way up; it’s getting Ajeto to concentrate to a hitter for as soon as.) He’s dropped his fingers, ditched his leg kick, and added a scissor kick and a mini-squat earlier than the pitch. As a result of Ajeto coated these extra technical matters, I can proceed to give attention to the surface-level numbers. And you already know what occurred to the surface-level numbers after the publication of that article, which was solely dedicated to documenting Robles’s sudden enchancment because the plate? They didn’t simply preserve getting higher, they exploded.
I used to be wishing as laborious as anybody for Robles to succeed with the Mariners, however I didn’t imply like this. I used to be thrilled to see him land a two-year extension price a assured $9.75 million, however he wasn’t imagined to immediately flip into one of the best participant in baseball, like shifting shifting from a district named Washington to an precise state named Washington was all it took to interrupt a strong curse solid by some outdated Issaquah-based witch who fell into the Reflecting Pool throughout her mock trial group’s journey to DC in ninth grade and by no means received over the humiliation. And no, I’m not exaggerating. From June 5 to August 17, Robles turned his season round, operating a 118 wRC+. Since August 18, Robles has actually been one of the best participant in baseball: He’s put up a 230 wRC+ and accrued 1.8 WAR, greater than whichever Cooperstown-bound MVP candidate you’d care to call. Certain, it’s truthful to level out that he’s operating a comically excessive .527 BABIP over that interval, however his .386 xwOBA nonetheless ranks nineteenth amongst certified gamers throughout that stretch. It’s beginning to appear like the best rationalization for why Robles by no means lived as much as his potential is that cherry blossoms are his private kryptonite.
In some way Robles left this ragged gap within the hearts of Nationals followers, however arrived in Seattle a gleaming famous person. The chaos has solely reared its head currently. Robles is taking part in via a hip challenge, and left his final two video games as a consequence of totally different accidents: leg soreness on Sunday and a proper hand contusion after getting hit by a pitch to steer off final evening’s recreation, an 11-2 loss to the Yankees. Earlier than Robles was eliminated towards New York, his wildness on the basepaths lastly caught up with the Mariners, with whom he’d beforehand gone 25-for-25 on stolen base makes an attempt. He was caught stealing dwelling within the backside of the primary inning, taking the bat out of Justin Turner’s fingers with the bases loaded, two outs, and a 3-0 depend.
I’m not saying all that is going to final, regardless of how a lot Robles loves the Puget Sound. Since he arrived in Seattle, he’s run a 34.4% hard-hit price and an 86.7-mph common exit velocity. The previous is significantly better than Robles has put up in any earlier season, however the latter isn’t and each are nonetheless nicely beneath league common. The true change is his barrel price of 8.6%, which is miles above something he’s achieved in earlier years. However take into account that we’re speaking about simply 13 barrels out of 151 balls in play, and neither his launch angle nor his GB/FB price represents a lot of a departure from his profession numbers. We’ve moved previous any-batter-can-do-just-about-anything-over-60-plate-appearances territory, however we’re not all that far off both.
Robles has made some honest-to-goodness changes to his swing which have had a right away, dramatic impact — frankly, the impact was so rapid and so dramatic that the Nationals must be trying intently at each single a kind of changes and asking themselves what the Mariners noticed that they didn’t — and we should always most likely modify our priors going ahead. However I haven’t seen something (but) to persuade me that he’s going to maintain operating a BABIP above .500 from right here on out. Additional, Robles has been coping with a hip challenge along with the leg soreness (which is a separate ailment) and the hand harm that pressured his early exit from the final two video games. As somebody who spent one thing like 1 / 4 of my life rooting for Robles to lastly put all of it collectively, I sincerely hope his nagging accidents develop into not more than simply that, and that when Robles lastly does come all the way down to earth, he finds a snug spot that’s located nicely above sea degree. However so long as he’s spending entire months with a wRC+ above 200, I reserve the appropriate to be slightly jealous.