Twins setup man Griffin Jax has quietly emerged as one of many high relievers within the sport, having simply wrapped up a profession 12 months that included a 2.03 ERA, 34.4% strikeout price and 5.4% stroll price in 71 innings. Jax, a former third-round select of the Air Pressure Academy, broke into professional ball as a starter, nevertheless, and nonetheless works with a starter’s repertoire even in brief reduction stints. The Twins are at the least open to the potential of seeing what Jax would seem like again in a extra conventional rotation setting, bench coach Jayce Tingler informed Mike Ferrin of MLB Community Radio on SiriusXM. There’s no indication of any agency plan to maneuver him from his present position proper now, to be clear.
Actually, there’s threat in taking Jax out of a job through which he’s come to excel. The proper-hander’s 2024 season was among the many better of any reliever in baseball and set new career-best marks in most notable classes, however Jax has been a top quality setup piece in Minnesota even earlier than this previous season.
Relationship again to 2022, the 29-year-old Jax sports activities a 3.06 earned run common with 15 saves, 65 holds, a 28.7% strikeout price and a 6.4% stroll price in 208 2/3 innings. He’s added 3 2/3 shutout innings with one hit, no walks and 5 strikeouts in postseason play throughout that point. Jax averaged a career-high 97.1 mph on his four-seamer this season, and his gargantuan 18.4% swinging-strike price ranked second in all of MLB amongst pitchers (starters and relievers) with at the least 70 innings pitched, trailing solely Josh Hader.
In contrast to most relievers, a lot of whom slim their arsenal to 2 pitches, Jax works with a five-pitch combine, throwing 4 of these choices round a 10-30% clip. He makes use of his slider as his important providing (37.5%, per Statcast), adopted by a four-seamer (29.9%), changeup (16.7%), sinker (9.8%) and an occasional show-me curveball (6.2%). There are some cases of starters getting by with two-pitch repertoires — greater than 90% of Dylan Stop’s pitches are both a slider or four-seamer; Kevin Gausman is comparable with a four-seamer/splitter combo — however most have at the least a 3rd providing that’s blended in with some extent of regularity.
Simply yesterday at The Athletic, Eno Sarris took a data-driven look at six relievers who may very well be notably well-suited to make the soar from the bullpen to the rotation, prompted by current information that Jeff Hoffman (one of many six) has been drawing some free agent curiosity as a starter. Jax was featured prominently resulting from his five-pitch choice, his velocity, two plus breaking balls and his standout command.
The Twins have tried Jax as a starter within the majors beforehand, however that was a special model of Jax. The proper-hander began 14 video games in 2021 and was shelled for a 6.37 ERA with an 18.1% strikeout price and eight.1% stroll price. As Sarris observes, nevertheless, Jax has gained almost 5 miles per hour on his heater — way over the usual bump acquired when shifting from the rotation to the ’pen — and added three inches of trip to the pitch. He’s additionally added the sinker, modified the form of his curveball and made different positive aspects of be aware. (Readers are extremely inspired to take a look at Sarris’ piece in full for detailed breakdowns of Jax, Hoffman and 4 different relievers.)
From a pure roster and payroll perspective, there are causes to think about the transfer. The Twins’ payroll has been crunched in 2024-25 after possession unexpectedly slashed it by $30MM final offseason amid broadcast uncertainty and, now, the exploration of a possible sale.
Pitching depth was a problem in 2024, as Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack missed the ultimate two months of the 12 months. The Twins relied on rookies (Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews) who have been all pushing effectively previous their prior career-high workloads. Jax may have comparable workload issues, however he’d additionally take some stress off these younger arms. It’s additionally potential that the payroll crunch leads the Twins to commerce Paddack and his $7.5MM wage — a spendy fifth starter for a group present process payroll discount mandates — and a beginning position for Jax would add some innings and depth with out additional including to the funds.
Past that, Jax is controllable for 3 extra years. If he’s capable of make a profitable return to the rotation in 2025 — even he’s capped round 120-130 innings — he may very well be a full-fledged rotation possibility in 2026 and 2027. That would give the Twins a rotation headlined by Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Ryan and Jax during 2027, which clearly carries the potential to be formidable. And, as a result of Jax has been a reliever up to now, his first-year wage projection in arbitration (by way of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) is simply $2.6MM. He’d be an reasonably priced hedge in opposition to an damage to the Twins’ high three or maybe a commerce from the bunch someplace down the street.
In fact, shifting Jax to the rotation would skinny out the late-inning reduction corps. Nearer Jhoan Duran would nonetheless be tasked with shutting down most video games, however he had some crimson flags in 2024, together with a dip in common fastball (to a still-elite 100.5 mph), a drop in strikeout price and an uptick in line-drives. Former starter Cole Sands had an under-the-radar breakout of his personal (3.28 ERA, 29.1 Okay%, 4.1 BB%), and the Twins can hope for higher well being from Justin Topa and Brock Stewart. Jax’s departure would create a void — however including a top quality reliever to switch him would seemingly be more cost effective than including rotation depth with comparable upside.
It’s at all times potential the Twins may merely check out Jax as a starter in spring coaching and go from there. If he exhibits effectively and appears as much as the problem, the experiment can carry into the season. It’s at all times simpler to stretch a pitcher out earlier than the season after which ramp him again right down to a reduction position than it’s to construct him up as a starter on the fly within the season, in order that situation may maintain enchantment. All of it is going to rely, to an extent, on what alternatives current themselves this offseason because the Twins look to deepen their pitching and reshape their lineup amid ongoing budgetary points that don’t appear prone to be alleviated through the sale course of (and are removed from assured to enhance even after a possible sale).