The White Sox Are Collapsing Towards Immortality

The 2024 season began completely terribly for the White Sox. After 25 video games, the crew’s report stood at 3-22, thanks largely to an anemic offense that hardly scored two runs per recreation. On the time – the Sox had been 3-21 once I wrote the piece – I posed the query of whether or not the White Sox had an actual shot at shedding 120 video games. I concluded that it was potential, with ZiPS projecting an 8.1% likelihood that Chicago would lose 120 video games, higher odds than even the Oakland A’s throughout their brutal 2023 season. That seemed to be the tip of the story, not less than till July.

After the terrible begin, issues acquired barely sunnier for the Sox for awhile. They swept the Tampa Bay Rays, a crew anticipated to be a contender, and over the following not-so-nice 69 video games, they went 24-45. Whereas a .348 successful share isn’t in the identical zip code as competence, that’s a 56-win tempo, a degree of lousiness that’s pretty commonplace for the worst groups within the league, not the stuff of legend. However because the commerce deadline approached, issues once more turned grim.

The White Sox received the primary recreation of a doubleheader in opposition to the Twins on July 10, bettering their report to 27-67. That date, nearly a month in the past, was the final time the White Sox received a recreation. The crew’s 21 straight losses ties them with the 1988 Orioles for the second-most consecutive losses in fashionable baseball historical past (since 1901), simply two losses behind the largest loser, the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies. In some sense, the present one is perhaps essentially the most spectacular shedding streak, just because the variations between the most effective and worst groups in baseball has shrunk through the years, making streaks like this more difficult to realize.

And no, the White Sox haven’t been unfortunate. Utilizing a modified Pythagorean successful share (I take advantage of 1.83 for the exponent slightly than two, because it’s been barely extra correct traditionally), the White Sox have been the fourth-worst crew since 1901.

If the season ended at this time, the White Sox would have the worst modified Pythagorean win share in additional than 80 years, because the Philadelphia Phils in 1942. No, that’s not a typo; the Phillies formally shortened their crew title for a season in 1942, apparently as a result of they determined they didn’t need to have the identical title as the road of cigars.

Drawback is, the season doesn’t finish at this time, so the Sox haven’t closed the deal but. Regression towards the imply is an actual factor, and one of many main the reason why individuals overrate groups when issues are going very effectively, and vice-versa. On the finish of the day, a .235 successful share or the .272 in modified Pythag are doubtless – although not assured – to go up over the remaining video games. Projections signify a extra secure description of a crew’s means, in addition to one which’s typically extra predictive of the longer term, and even with the diminished post-deadline roster, ZiPS sees the White Sox as “solely” a .355 crew, a 58-104 tempo that represents merely a ho-hum degree of awfulness.

Nevertheless it’s additionally doubtless that given extra video games, these different horrible groups doubtless would have performed higher ball as effectively, for related causes. (Keep in mind, Main League Baseball didn’t implement the present 162-game schedule till 1961.) Whereas ZiPS projections date again to 2005, I’ve a fast little estimator for a crew’s underlying means that correlates pretty effectively with projections; it’s a mixture of precise report, a crew’s “wRC Pythagorean” — which makes use of wRC slightly than runs rating and allowed — and a mannequin of regression towards .500. So I calculated the worst groups by this technique and in contrast them to Chicago’s .356 estimate.

Whew, the White Sox as soon as once more fall to satisfyingly hurlicious ranges because the worst crew because the 1952 Pirates. And the factor is that for the Sox, a .355 report is awful sufficient that they stand a good chance at shedding 120 video games anyway with the variety of losses they have already got banked. With 47 video games to play, a .355 report would internet them solely 16.7 wins, leaving them at just below a 44-118 report, tantalizingly near the 1962 Mets normal. And since we all know that projections aren’t excellent, or not less than possibly actuality isn’t, that offers the White Sox ample room to proceed to underperform and take the grand prize. Fortunately, ZiPS can deal with that estimate.

Even with issues projected to not go fairly as badly, ZiPS offers the White Sox a barely higher than one-in-three likelihood (34%) to lose 120 video games. And it may get even worse, with a 1% projected shot of ending with a 35-127 report (or worse). That’s championship brutality proper there. The amusing factor is that this likelihood may’ve been even greater, however the White Sox didn’t commerce Garrett Crochet or Luis Robert Jr. on the deadline, leaving the crew encumbered with an extra 2-3 wins. If I take away Crochet and Robert Jr. in favor of their doubtless sub-replacement replacements, ZiPS initiatives the Pale Hose to have a 66% likelihood of shedding not less than 120 video games!

I’m unsure I’d go as far as to name it a silver lining, however hope stays even for essentially the most woeful groups in baseball. The final crew to make a critical late run at 120 losses, the 2003 Tigers, improved rapidly within the following seasons and made it to the World Collection simply three years later. These 1952 Pirates had been in the course of a full rebuild helmed by legendary normal supervisor Department Rickey, employed in ’51, and although well being issues pressured him to step down in ’55, the group assembled lots of the key gamers who had been on the World Collection-winning crew in ’60. And let’s not neglect that seven years after shedding 120 video games, the Mets received the 1969 World Collection. White Sox proprietor Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t one to embrace change, however a catastrophe of epic proportions may, in idea, be the one factor that might immediate him to overtake the group. I wouldn’t say I’m terribly optimistic about this really taking place, however with an improved farm system – we now rank Chicago’s farm because the third finest in baseball – and possibly a greater entrance workplace assembled, the Sox may flip issues round.

Whether or not the White Sox have a brighter future is one thing we’ll have to attend to search out out. For now, take pleasure in these Sox as they attain new ranges of ineptitude, as a result of they stands out as the worst main league crew you’ll ever see.