Final week, I wrote about Paul Goldschmidt’s prospects in free company, however didn’t speculate on a touchdown spot for the 2022 NL MVP. To not fear — when the FanGraphs Bluesky account recirculated the piece on Monday, the general public weighed in. One respondent thought the Yankees made sense, and whereas I don’t assume the match is good for both participant or membership, the underlying logic is cheap sufficient. And right here I’ll add my very own spin on a possible Goldschmidt-Yankees partnership: It certain feels just like the Yankees love previous first basemen.
In 2024, 34-year-old Anthony Rizzo and 35-year-old DJ LeMahieu mixed for 548 plate appearances and 1017 2/3 defensive innings at first base for the Yankees. (All ages on this piece are relative to the usual June 30 cutoff date until in any other case specified.) That’s 81.5% of the Yankees’ taking part in time by plate appearances and 70.0% by defensive innings. Over the previous 5 years, Yankees first basemen have the best common age within the league. Since Don Mattingly turned 30 in 1991, the Yankees’ most-used first baseman has been in his age-30 season or older in 28 of 34 seasons. In 12 of these seasons, the Yankees’ most-used first baseman has been 33 or older, together with in 2023 and 2024.
This bought me serious about the thought of the previous first baseman.
First base is to baseball what crabs are to the animal kingdom. On a protracted sufficient timeline, each dwelling organism will flip into one. (Additionally a primary baseman’s mitt sort of seems to be like a crab claw.) It’s the place outfielders go when their legs give out, the place catchers go when their knees give out, and the place third basemen go when their arms give out. Given the restricted bodily calls for of first base, it is sensible that this place would skew older.
However is it dangerous to go together with an older first baseman?
Not essentially. Since 2020, 5 groups, together with the Yankees, have given a minimum of three quarters of their first base plate appearances to gamers of their age-30 seasons or older. These 5 groups embrace two of the highest 4 in wRC+ on the place and three of the highest 10 in WAR. And having an previous man at first base appears to be good for the group typically. Three of the 5 winningest groups of the previous decade are on this group, and the one group that’s beneath .500 in that span is the Diamondbacks, who gained the pennant in 2023.
There may be, nevertheless, a extra parsimonious method to say all this.
Outdated First Basemen Make Good Groups
| Workforce | 30+ PA | wRC+ | WAR | Chief | PA | % of 30+ PA | % of whole PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 90.80% | 135 | 19.1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 2655 | 94.8% | 86.0% |
| HOU | 90.19% | 96 | 1.0 | Yuli Gurriel | 1392 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| LAD | 86.87% | 136 | 21.4 | Freddie Freeman | 2076 | 75.8% | 65.8% |
| ARI | 80.05% | 107 | 10.3 | Christian Walker | 2240 | 91.7% | 73.4% |
| NYY | 78.22% | 101 | 4.0 | Anthony Rizzo | 1467 | 61.7% | 48.3% |
So would you like an previous first baseman typically, or would you like Freddie Freeman? As a result of Freeman shouldn’t be solely the Dodgers’ most-used over-30 first baseman since 2020, he additionally holds that distinction for the Braves, who changed him with one other extremely productive veteran, Matt Olson. Talking of latecomers, the Phillies have devoted solely 35.4% of their first base reps to over-30 gamers since 2020, however their present first baseman, Bryce Harper, solely turned 1) a primary baseman and a pair of) a 30-something comparatively not too long ago. In a couple of years, I’m most likely going to overlook I did this text and do the entire thing once more from scratch; anticipate to see Harper on the checklist then.
There are two methods to get an previous first baseman, and the Yankees have achieved each over time. The primary is to exit in free company and signal a real All-Star-level bat. These guys are likely to hit the market late of their prime, so a group that goes out and indicators — to make use of this yr’s instance — Pete Alonso goes to have him within the lineup for many of his 30s.
These 28 seasons the place the Yankees had a 30-and-over first baseman included 4 from Jason Giambi and 6 from Mark Teixeira, each marquee free agent signings. Plus 4 extra from Tino Martinez, whom the Yankees acquired in a commerce, and 5 from Donnie Baseball. That is stating the apparent, however if you happen to’ve bought an excellent first baseman, simply cling on to him.
That’s true no matter age. The 9 groups with the very best wRC+ by first basemen since 2020 consists of 5 groups which have given greater than half their taking part in time to previous guys, but additionally the three youngest groups on the checklist by this metric: the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mets. (The one group within the center is Harper’s Phillies.) So in case you have an excellent first baseman of any age, it is best to maintain on to him.
In fact, not everyone seems to be so fortunate. And that street results in Door no. 2, which is: Signal the slowest attainable man who’s ever hit 30 residence runs in a season at any level up to now, and provides him the large mitt.
Along with monitoring the share of plate appearances given to 30-and-over first basemen, I additionally regarded up the person leaders for every group. In 4 of these circumstances — Seattle, Kansas Metropolis, Minnesota, and Cleveland — the most-used previous first baseman is Carlos Santana. Which is humorous sufficient as it’s, however he’s additionally second in 30-plus taking part in time amongst each Pirates and Brewers first basemen as nicely, and is barely 23 PA behind Connor Joe for first place on Pittsburgh’s leaderboard.
Santana’s a tremendous participant, however you don’t need him anchoring your lineup at this level in his profession.
Right here we have now the six groups within the Santana Zone: Groups which have devoted a minimum of 25% of their whole first base taking part in time to gamers 30 and older, however with no particular person first baseman receiving greater than half of the 30-and-over taking part in time.
The Santana Zone
| Workforce | 30+% | wRC+ | WAR | Chief | PA | % of 30+ PA | % of whole PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 29.32% | 96 | 1.7 | Albert Pujols | 188 | 21.5% | 6.3% |
| MIA | 70.97% | 98 | 3.3 | Jesús Aguilar | 844 | 39.8% | 28.3% |
| MIL | 35.11% | 94 | 0.6 | Rhys Hoskins | 362 | 35.2% | 12.4% |
| PIT | 32.47% | 89 | -1.0 | Connor Joe | 381 | 40.8% | 13.3% |
| SFG | 68.92% | 121 | 12.3 | Brandon Belt | 791 | 38.3% | 26.4% |
| WSN | 39.80% | 113 | 8.3 | Joey Meneses | 425 | 35.9% | 14.3% |
I seen after I made this chart that Santana shouldn’t be truly the most-used 30-and-over first baseman for any of those groups. I’ve determined I don’t care, and I’m naming it the Santana Zone anyway.
Anyway, having a rotating forged of bounce-back candidates is not any method to construct a group. Of the six golf equipment within the Santana Zone, just one — the Giants — is within the high 10 within the league in both wRC+ or WAR. And 4 of those groups rank twenty third or decrease in group wins over the previous 5 years. And these six franchises have mixed to win just one playoff sequence within the 2020s: Miami’s three-game upset of the Cubs in 2020. These are, broadly talking, not good groups.
In different phrases, older first basemen assist your group win once they’re good. However they damage your group once they’re not good. Everybody following to this point? Excellent.
I’m having a tougher time determining what the Yankees thought Rizzo was purported to be. Over three and a half seasons in New York, Rizzo hit .234/.326/.409, which is a wRC+ of 109 and a complete WAR of three.6. That’s not superior. However in his final stroll yr, Rizzo was a 2.5 WAR participant with a 131 wRC+. Getting into his age-33 season, the Yankees gave him a two-year contract price $20 million per season. It’s solely after he signed that contract that he began to get damage and his bat went significantly downhill.
So the Yankees lived with what they bought from Rizzo the previous two seasons — the final spark from an previous man nearing retirement. That would appear to ask a run at Goldschmidt. However the wage they handed out would point out that they hoped for one thing extra. And in a down free agent yr for first basemen, Rizzo was near the highest of the market on the place. They may go for an older first baseman once more, however somewhat than stay within the Santana Zone, the Yankees could be better-served chasing Walker and even Alonso, who turns 30 in two weeks.
The Yankees do love an older first baseman, however they’ve higher choices this time. Age is only a quantity, however so is wRC+, and we all know which one is extra essential.