Left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara has been formally posted by the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Skilled Baseball, per reporter Francys Romero (X hyperlink). That opens up a 45-day window for his representatives at William Morris Endeavor to barter with main league golf equipment. If no deal is reached in that point, the southpaw will return to the Dragons for 2025.
It was reported again in October that the Dragons would make Ogasawara accessible by way of the posting system and that has now been rubber-stamped. The 30 MLB golf equipment can now formally communicate to his representatives and see what kind of contract will likely be essential to get him to place pen to paper.
Whereas Ogasawara ought to generate curiosity, he’s clearly not thrilling as Roki Sasaki, who has additionally been posted for golf equipment this offseason. Nonetheless, Ogasawara doubtless has extra incomes energy than Sasaki because of the binary nature of MLB worldwide signing guidelines.
Gamers must be 25 years previous and have six seasons of expertise in a overseas skilled league so as to be thought-about “professionals” and have the fitting to freely negotiate a contract of any dimension and size. Gamers who don’t meet these standards are thought-about “amateurs” and are subsequently topic to the worldwide bonus pool system, the place every membership will get $5-8MM yearly to spend on such gamers. Sasaki is simply 23 years previous and can subsequently be restricted to a minor league take care of a signing bonus of some million bucks. Ogasawara, then again, is 27 years previous and has appeared in elements of 9 NPB seasons. Which means he has the liberty to completely assess his incomes energy and market himself to the best bidder.
How a lot curiosity North American golf equipment can have in him is unknown. Ogasawara has had some success, however not as a lot as another pitchers which have lately come over like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Shota Imanaga. He has thrown 951 1/3 innings over his NPB profession, although placing out simply 18.9% of batters confronted. For context, MLB common is often within the 22-23% vary nowadays. He did get his strikeout fee as much as 24% in 2022 nevertheless it dropped to twenty.1% final yr after which all the way in which to 13.6% in 2024.
The shortage of punchouts hasn’t stopped him from succeeding in Japan, as he has a 3.62 earned run common over his profession and had a 3.12 ERA within the season that simply completed, although MLB golf equipment would possibly surprise if the identical pitch-to-contact method may carry over to North American ball.
Ogasawara can be on the smaller facet for a beginning pitcher, listed at 5’11” and 183 kilos. That’s truly barely bigger than the 5’10” and 175 kilos listed for Imanaga, so it’s not a complete disqualification, however Imanaga managed to strike out 25% of batters confronted in his NPB profession.
Although even when Ogasawara is a notch under Imanaga, he may nonetheless generate curiosity. Youth is clearly a pretty high quality which is why guys like Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee and Juan Soto have been paid so effectively, so the truth that Ogasawara simply turned 27 in October will work in his favor. The current downturn in strikeouts is a bit regarding however he additionally lowered his stroll fee to a tiny 3.7% fee in 2024 and the ERA was nonetheless good.
It’s troublesome to forecast a contract for a participant coming from one other league like Ogasawara however MLBTR predicted after the beginning of the offseason that he may land a two-year, $12MM deal. Maybe he may gain advantage from the truth that the marketplace for mid-rotation starters has been fairly sturdy to this point this winter. Every of Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have earned bigger assured than projected in current weeks, which may maybe trickle right down to Ogasawara.
The lefty and his workforce can have greater than a month to really feel out the market and gauge curiosity. For golf equipment nonetheless wanting so as to add within the rotation however who don’t need to pay for high names like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried or Jack Flaherty, Ogasawara will likely be a part of a mid-rotation or back-end group that also consists of Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.