Third baseman Nolan Arenado is a logical commerce candidate with the Cardinals planning a reset yr. Because the Playing cards assess the curiosity, Katie Woo of The Athletic reviews that Arenado is keen to maneuver to first base with a brand new membership, or at the least play the recent nook much less usually.
Arenado has lengthy voiced a need to compete, which is what spurred his commerce from Colorado to St. Louis years in the past. He additionally declined a chance to opt-out of his contract after 2022, seemingly content material with the Cardinals’ standing as perennial contenders. However their efficiency has sagged lately, inflicting them to pivot to a deal with participant growth and fewer on speedy rivalry, at the least for 2025 however maybe longer.
With that near-term future outlook, it is smart to think about buying and selling some gamers that aren’t a part of the long-term plans. Arenado is popping 34 years outdated in April and has three years left on his contract, so there’s logic to the membership making him out there. He has a no-trade clause however it is smart that he would have some openness to waiving it, given his need to compete and win. Woo reviews that Arenado has not demanded a commerce however was receptive to the thought when president of baseball operations John Mozeliak mentioned it with him.
It’s not unusual for gamers to be keen to vary positions as a way to increase their attainable touchdown spots. This offseason, free brokers like third baseman Alex Bregman and shortstop Willy Adames are reportedly keen to maneuver to different infield spots. Each are robust defenders at their positions, however it’s a wise tactic in retaining one’s market as extensive open as attainable.
With Arenado, it makes a bit of bit much less sense. Over the previous couple of years, his offense has declined however he has nonetheless been a beneficial participant because of his third base protection. He has slashed .269/.320/.426 over the 2 most up-to-date campaigns, offense that interprets to a 104 wRC+, barely above league common. Nevertheless, FanGraphs has nonetheless calculated him as being value about three wins above alternative in every these seasons (2.7 in 2023 and three.1 in 2024), because of his robust glovework.
Arenado has by no means performed a place apart from third, although he most likely wouldn’t have a lot bother shifting throughout the diamond since first base is mostly thought-about a much less demanding place. However that may additionally deprive him of his finest asset at this level in his profession, until his bat can rebound in an enormous approach.
His willingness to maneuver might maybe be an element if a membership already had a superb third baseman, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville Information-Democrat (Bluesky hyperlink) speculating that the Padres are one such membership. That group has Manny Machado, a powerful third baseman in his personal proper, entrenched at third base as a franchise cornerstone. He’s underneath contract for nearly one other decade, by way of 2033.
They’ve a bit much less certainty at first base. Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arráez received a lot of the taking part in time there in 2024 however each are able to taking part in second base. The Padres had Xander Bogaerts on the keystone for a lot of 2024 however he moved again to shortstop when Ha-Seong Kim received injured, and Kim is now a free agent. Arráez can be not an excellent defender, at secord or first base, so maybe he would finest match within the designated hitter slot.
Theoretically, it’s attainable that the membership might have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth and Arenado from left to proper, with Arráez within the DH spot. Occasionally, Machado might get a breather because the DH, with Arenado shifting to 3rd and Arráez taking part in first.
There are additionally different explanation why the match might make sense, as Arenado beforehand performed for Padres supervisor Mike Shildt when Shildt was skipper in St. Louis. Arenado can be a Southern California native. That has usually led to rumors of him ultimately being traded to the Dodgers, however the match there’s a bit trickier. The Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani taking over the DH spot, Freddie Freeman at first and Max Muncy at third. Theoretically, they might purchase Arenado and commerce Muncy, although it’s unclear if they’ve any need to take action. Muncy’s protection is a bit behind Arenado’s however he’s been higher on the plate currently, having slashed .218/.342/.481 over the previous two years for a 124 wRC+.
It will maybe be easier for the Padres to only purchase a primary baseman and for Arenado to go to a membership with a spot at third base. The Crimson Sox are reportedly considering of shifting Rafael Devers to first and will exchange him on the sizzling nook by buying Arenado. Groups just like the Blue Jays, Mariners, Astros, Nationals, Brewers, Tigers, Mets and Phillies have been linked to free brokers like Bregman or Adames, or are at the least speculative matches for a brand new third baseman. Arenado’s no-trade clause signifies that he would get to find out whether or not or not he goes to these golf equipment and it’s unknown how he would really feel about them by way of their capacity to contend or how a lot their respective geographic places would matter to him.
On high of all that, the Cardinals should assess what different golf equipment are keen to supply in return. Although the Playing cards are planning to run a decrease payroll in 2025, they don’t really want to maneuver Arenado’s contract as a way to accomplish that. RosterResource already tasks them to be about $35MM decrease than they had been in 2024, so price financial savings shouldn’t be the precedence right here. To that finish, Woo reviews that they received’t transfer Arenado simply to maneuver him or dump wage.
A commerce would presumably solely come collectively if the Cardinals really feel they’re getting one thing of worth in return. Maybe they might eat some the rest of Arenado’s contract as a way to line up on a deal. He’s owed $74MM over the following three seasons although a few of that cash is deferred and the Rockies are additionally nonetheless on the hook for $5MM this coming season. Along with including some younger expertise within the commerce, the Playing cards might additionally use their reset yr to provide Arenado’s taking part in time to gamers like Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese or others.
For a group just like the Padres, like they may want the Cardinals to eat some cash, since their payroll has been such a problem lately. They dialed again spending after 2023, dealing Juan Soto to the Yankees, and averted the aggressive steadiness tax. Going into 2025, RosterResource tasks their payroll to be about $40MM above 2024 ranges earlier than making any vital offseason strikes, with their CBT a bit over the road already as properly. Alternatively, they’ve traded away a variety of prospects lately and may not wish to additional deplete their farm simply to awkwardly wedge Arenado into their infield combine.
Woo’s reporting additionally provides that no deal is near being accomplished, however she provides that issues might choose up on the Winter Conferences, which occur from December 8 to 11.