Proper-hander Shane Bieber is coming again to the Guardians. He and the membership have reportedly agreed to a cope with a $10MM wage in 2025, with a $16MM participant choice for 2026 that comes with a $4MM buyout. That makes it a $26MM assure over two years however Bieber can probably return to free company after banking $14MM in 12 months one. He reportedly turned down extra money with different golf equipment with the intention to return to Cleveland. The righty is represented by Rosenhaus Sports activities Illustration.
Bieber, 30 in Could, returns to the one group he’s ever recognized. The contract is a mirrored image of his present standing, as he underwent Tommy John surgical procedure in April, that means he’ll miss not less than a part of the upcoming season. This deal affords him the possibility to return to the mound in 2025 and set up his well being. If his efficiency can return wherever close to his beforehand elite ranges, he can resolve to return to the open market. Although if he hits any sort of setback or doesn’t fairly bounce again instantly, he can financial institution the additional $12MM and stick round one other 12 months.
Whether or not he can certainly get again in kind is the large query. Bieber’s ceiling is properly established, as he gained the American League Cy Younger award in 2020. He dominated the shortened season, making 12 begins that 12 months with a 1.63 earned run common. He struck out 41.1% of batters confronted, walked 7.1% of opponents and obtained grounders at a 48.4% price.
However issues have principally gone downhill since then, even earlier than the surgical procedure. In 2021, his numbers dipped, which wasn’t precisely sudden as sustaining his 2020 stats over a full season would have been nearly unimaginable. His 3.17 ERA and 33.1% strikeout price had been each off of his earlier season however nonetheless sturdy numbers. He missed about three months because of a proper shoulder subscapularis pressure.
In 2022, he stayed wholesome sufficient to make 31 begins and log 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, however with extra regarding indicators elsewhere. He averaged simply 91.3 miles per hour on his fastball that 12 months, after principally being within the 93-94 vary in prior years. His strikeout price additionally dipped to 25%, nonetheless a bit above league common however a drop for him personally. In 2023, he missed time because of proper elbow irritation, which appears in hindsight like a precursor to his surgical procedure. He did make 21 begins on the 12 months however with a 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout price and comparable velocity to the 12 months prior.
Going into 2024, his title was in loads of commerce rumors. The Guardians typically commerce gamers as their wage grows they usually get nearer to free company, doing so with gamers like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber considerably not too long ago. In hindsight, maybe the Guards ought to have pulled the set off on a deal, however perhaps they didn’t obtain substantial affords on the heels of all of the crimson flags in 2022 and 2023.
For a short second, hanging onto Bieber appeared like an excellent transfer. He made two begins initially of 2024, tossing six shutout innings in every of them and recording 20 strikeouts in these 12 innings. His velocity got here again barely, along with his fastball averaging 92.3 mph in his first begin of the 12 months. However it dipped to 91.6 mph within the second begin and the information of his surgical procedure dropped earlier than he may make a 3rd.
Now he’ll be trying to come again from the prolonged Tommy John restoration course of, in addition to the regarding seasons that preceded the operation. It’s now been a very long time since Bieber had his greatest stuff over a full season, arguably since 2019. The shortened 2020 season was clearly outdoors of his management however all however one season since then has seen him miss important time. Within the one season the place he stayed on the mound, his stuff was clearly diminished.
All that makes this an attention-grabbing gamble for the Guardians, as this can be a pretty notable expenditure for them. They don’t typically spend a lot in free company, significantly on the pitching facet. As proven in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, within the final 15 years, that is the primary time they’ve given a pitcher greater than $7MM. That’s partially a testomony to their capability to develop their very own pitching however they’ve additionally solely given 4 place gamers a bigger assure than this in that point.
Per RosterResource, the Guards are actually projected for a payroll of $107MM subsequent 12 months, already greater than what they spent in 2024. They might maybe drop that by buying and selling somebody like Josh Naylor or Lane Thomas however this Bieber deal is an honest chunk of the funds both approach.
It’s a dangerous proposition for these parameters. On condition that restoration from Tommy John surgical procedure usually takes 14 months or longer, the Guards would possibly solely get half a season or so from Bieber in 2025. If he hits a setback of any type, it may very well be lower than that. Even when he’s again on a giant league mound by June, it’s no assure that he’ll be in good kind.
The upside play is that Bieber comes again to one thing resembling an ace. The Guards set up him into their second half rotation after which, ideally, as a key piece of their postseason rotation. At that time, he would decline his participant choice they usually may challenge him a qualifying supply, which can most likely be within the $22MM vary. Assuming he declines that and goes out on the lookout for a significant deal, they might recoup draft decide compensation.
On the opposite finish of the spectrum are the situations the place Bieber isn’t fairly totally wholesome or just isn’t pretty much as good as he was earlier than, wherein case he sticks round for an additional 12 months at a fair increased wage than in 2025.
It’s a threat the Guardians are keen to take, which is probably because of the respect that the group has for him, nevertheless it’s additionally maybe a mirrored image of the present rotation state of affairs. The Guardians managed to win the Central in 2024, however the Bieber-less rotation was the weakest a part of the roster. They struggled to search out viable options there for a lot of the 12 months, discovering success on the backs of an honest offense and elite bullpen.
Pitchers like Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen both struggled or had been injured or each. Tanner Bibee was the membership’s solely starter who has constantly wholesome and performing properly all 12 months lengthy. Matthew Boyd was a superb midseason addition, coming in after recovering from his personal Tommy John surgical procedure, however he turned a free agent at season’s finish and has a deal in place with the Cubs.
Subsequent 12 months’s Opening Day rotation for Cleveland presently consists of Bibee and lots of query marks. Guys like Williams, McKenzie and Allen are nonetheless within the combine however coming off these aforementioned difficulties. Journeyman Ben Vigorous is on the roster, as are pretty unproven guys like Joey Cantillo and Doug Nikhazy. The Guards most likely have extra to do in upgrading that group however they may hope that Bieber can cost in like a proverbial white knight sooner or later in the midst of 2025 to avoid wasting the day.
The aforementioned Boyd offers a tough template of what Bieber and the Guards will probably be hoping for subsequent 12 months. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in eight begins down the stretch after which had three extra good outings within the postseason. That was sufficient to get him a two-year, $29MM deal, however Bieber has a path to incomes way over that. Boyd goes into his age-34 season whereas Bieber will probably be going into his age-31 marketing campaign in 2026. Boyd’s harm observe report can be extra in depth than Bieber’s and Bieber has the extra spectacular early profession numbers.
As such, with a powerful end in 2025, Bieber may place himself to earn way over Boyd simply did. Although that’s simply considered one of many potential situations in entrance of him and the Guardians within the 12 months to come back.
Buster Olney of ESPN (X hyperlink) first reported that the 2 sides had been in settlement. Robert Murray of FanSided (X hyperlink) first relayed that it was a one-year deal plus a participant choice. Jeff Passan of ESPN (X hyperlink) first had the greenback figures. Jon Heyman of The New York Submit (X hyperlink) first relayed that Bieber had bigger affords elsewhere.