You may be a bit stunned to study simply how uncommon 3-0 counts are. As of Tuesday morning, there had been 155,045 plate appearances within the 2024 season, and simply 5,852 of them, or 3.8%, had gone 3-0. That implies that every group ought to count on to see a 3-0 rely simply 1.4 instances per recreation. That’s an entire lot fewer than I anticipated. Due to that shortage, if any individual involves you with statistics a couple of batter’s splits in 3-0 counts, you may most likely low cost them as a small pattern measurement aberration. That’s all of the extra true when you think about that, ignoring intentional walks, 3-0 counts flip into walks roughly 60% of the time (which in turns implies that they account for roughly 29% of all walks). As soon as the batter will get forward 3-0, there are only a few precise at-bats going down. So that you don’t must take this critically for those who don’t need to, however as soon as he reaches a 3-0 rely, Aaron Choose is placing collectively the best season in recorded historical past. I do know that’s not precisely a stunning lede – Aaron Choose is sweet at one thing; movie at eleven – however it’s enjoyable, so hear me out.
On this case, recorded historical past begins in 1988. That’s the earliest 12 months that Stathead enables you to pull count-based splits. These splits are barely muddied by the truth that so far as Stathead is anxious, 3-0 counts embody intentional walks. (That’s comprehensible, since till very not too long ago, intentional walks nonetheless required pitchers to throw 4 precise balls. Nonetheless, it positively skews the numbers; it doesn’t make a ton of sense to incorporate PAs the place the batter by no means noticed a aggressive pitch in rely splits.) This season, Choose has been walked deliberately 18 instances, however 4 of these passes solely occurred as soon as the pitcher had fallen behind 3-0, so we’ll go away them and strip out the opposite 14.
That leaves Choose with 43 PAs that went to a 3-0 rely, second in baseball behind Juan Soto, who has 54 (which additionally provides the Yankees much more 3-0 counts than some other group in baseball). In these PAs, Choose has walked 35 instances, for a stroll fee of 81.4%. That’s how terrifying Aaron Choose is: Although he ranks second on this break up by PAs, pitchers are so disinclined to throw him a strike that he’s tied for seventy fifth in ABs.
So how did these eight at-bats go? Properly, they went popup, single, homer, homer, homer, strikeout, groundout, homer. Should you’re holding rating at house, that will be 5-for-8 with 4 homers, good for a 2.125 slugging proportion. I went again into Stathead and tried to search out the gamers with one of the best 3-0 splits in historical past. (For these splits, I wasn’t capable of separate out intentional walks, however since we’re speaking about a number of the finest hitting performances of the final 4 many years, they’re most likely not skewing the on-base percentages that a lot anyway.) Since 1988, Choose is the solely participant to get forward 3-0 a minimum of 30 instances and to run a slugging proportion above 2.000 in these plate appearances. Yordan Alvarez got here closest; in 2019, the Houston slugger bought forward 3-0 in 23 PAs, walked in 20 of them, and homered in all three of the opposite others. That’s patently absurd, and it makes for a tidy 4.000 slugging proportion.
This season, as soon as he reaches 3-0, Choose has a slash line of .625/.930/2.125, with an OPS of three.055 (3.072 if we rely his intentional walks). Amongst gamers with a minimum of 35 PAs in a 3-0 rely, that’s one of the best OPS in recorded historical past. Subsequent on the listing is 2004 Barry Bonds. As you may recall, 2004 Barry Bonds was fairly good. He ran a 233 wRC+ and hit 45 house runs in simply 373 at-bats, as a result of he bought walked almost 38% of the time. That season, Bonds ran a 2.760 OPS after he bought forward within the rely 3-0, almost 300 factors beneath Choose.
Right here’s the craziest a part of the story. Choose has had eight at-bats with a 3-0 rely this season. Since 1988, for those who set a minimal of eight at-bats with a 3-0 rely, he’s second all-time in each slugging and OPS. Who’s in first, and what 12 months did they accomplish this feat? That might be Kyle Tucker, this season. The Houston proper fielder, who has been out since June 5 with a mysterious shin contusion that was not too long ago upgraded to a much-less-mysterious full-on fracture, has gotten forward 3-0 in 20 plate appearances this 12 months. He’s walked 11 instances and gone 6-for-9 with 5 homers and a double. That’s good for a 2.444 slugging proportion.
As soon as once more, the numbers we’re speaking about listed below are minuscule. Within the case of Choose, we’re speaking about simply eight at-bats. He might fly out twice with a 3-0 rely tonight, and hastily he’d be a pathetic 5-for-10 with 4 house runs and each phrase that I’ve written can be fully irrelevant. (Be aware to Aaron Choose: Please don’t do that, I encourage of you.) However these tiny numbers additionally communicate to type of numbers Aaron Choose is placing up, once more. He’s been so unreal that it’s exhausting to discover a break up the place he isn’t on the prime of the league. The numbers are tiny, however it’s not an accident that he’s discovered himself in so many 3-0 counts or that he’s walked greater than 4 instances out of 5 as soon as he bought there. He’s operating a 96th-percentile chase fee and a A centesimal-percentile hard-hit fee. No surprise we are able to’t cease mentioning Barry Bonds. Seasons just like the one Choose is having don’t come alongside all that always, so let’s ensure we get pleasure from ourselves, whatever the pattern measurement.
Many because of FanGraph member Brian Reinhart for suggesting this matter and Stathead’s Katie Sharp for serving to me decouple intentional walks from this information the place attainable.