Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/20/24

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Good midday from chilly Philadelphia, I’m coming to you from a resort room awaiting the arrival of a bunch of my hometown buds for a marriage.
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: You may already know the Cubs listing went dwell right this moment, please take pleasure in.
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get it.
12:02
Matt: When may we count on to see the 2025 MLB Draft class to be placed on The Board?
12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Most likely prospect week. Travis and I’ve an enormous rating lurking within the background however he wrote a bunch of the reviews and is about to be employed by a workforce. They might need to sequester his opinions and I definitely received’t cross his work off as my very own, so a whole lot of the school class’ reviews must be rewritten (which is okay, it’s for an excellent purpose).
12:04
Visitor: when are you going to be throwing the J15 prospects on the board
12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Shortly after the brand new yr.
12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Springs, most likely. He’s no less than been wholesome right here and there, Boyle has by no means thrown strikes.
12:05
Tyler: What’s Konnor Griffin’s upside? Might he shoot up the rankings if he performs nicely in his first season?
12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, if the contact piece is powerful out the gate that may make people really feel extra snug that the instruments will play.
12:06
fuz: So one workforce will spend their total worldwide 2025 bonus pool on one FV=60.  What the possibility that one other workforce will get extra worth with their 2025 bonus pool on conventional unfold the cash round?
12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: The hit fee on gamers on this market is low sufficient that I’d most likely simply take Sasaki at max quantity and roll with it. I are likely to agree that spreading out your pool is healthier than giving 3+ mil to 1 man and calling it a day, however that is perhaps as a result of I’m coming off the Cubs listing.
12:08
Alec: With the Nats (or one other workforce say LAA or Seattle) doing so nicely within the draft lottery, would this make them much less more likely to signal a QO man, since these groups (esp. the massive market ones) would lose a few of that lottery benefit within the type of bonus pool area and a decide?
12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: I hadn’t thought of that, however yeah. It could change the way in which I checked out my draft planning and spending if I leapt like that within the lottery, and within the instances the place different exercise impacts your draft state of affairs you’d need to extra fastidiously take into account these impacts now that you simply decide 3 or no matter.
12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: It may additionally rely in your perceived high quality of the category
12:10
George: Which of Herz, Parker, and Irwin are you most shopping for as a legit center rotation man for the Nats?
12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: These are all backend/lengthy reduction guys for me. Irwin, for me, has the very best likelihood to throw strikes and eat innings over the lengthy haul. Parker has already been higher than I anticipated, although.
12:12
Bob “Robert” Costas: Hello Eric — blissful holidays. What are your ideas on Yairo Padilla? I didn’t even recall the Cardinals signing him, and now I’m seeing his identify in every single place as a possible escape 5 device SS/CFer.  thanks!
12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: Pleased holidays, Bobby. He solely exists on a spreadsheet to me proper now, although St. Louis’ DSL performs the Mets and Phillies sufficient that there’s a whole lot of Padilla tape on-line that might be consumed previous to the Playing cards listing getting printed…
12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: To that finish, he’s an above-average contact hitter with well-below common energy.
12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: 15% onerous hit fee isn’t nice even for his age, the contact stuff is sweet however nothing loopy (78% contact fee)
12:14
Bob “Robert” Costas: Inquisitive about how you bought to a 50 FV for Alcantara when his hit might be at finest a 35.  That’s principally unplayable–definitely not in an on a regular basis function.
12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I assume I’m curious what you’d placed on Tyler O’Neill and Colten Cowser’s hit device, simply off the highest. Huge energy and plus protection, higher really feel for in-zone contact than Denzel Clarke (as I wrote up Clarke for the A’s listing, these two had been good apples-to-apples comps)
12:16
Brian’s Bought Money, man!: I’ve this man Jasson. The projections appear modest however I’ve a sense.  Ought to I belief the sensation or the projections?
12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve had a 50 on Dominguez for some time, that’s a median common. He’s effective, not a messiah.
12:16
Ken: Are you stunned the A’s haven’t taken on a nasty contract or two in trades with a prospect sweetener?
12:17
Eric A Longenhagen: I believe that’s a flex reserved for the massive market daddies. If the A’s add vital payroll, it needs to be to make the massive league workforce higher.
12:18
Cromulent: Wyatt Sanford or Wyatt Langford? These guys remind me of one another for some purpose. Can’t put my finger on it…
12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: You’re the man who drafted the flawed Adrian Peterson
12:18
RWFTF: Is the 30/35 fielding grade on Matt Shaw a typo? The textual content reads extra like a 40/50 or 40/55. Simply attempting to get a greater really feel for a way the textual content interprets to the grading. Thanks!
12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh sure it’s, thanks for that
12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: lemme repair that asap
12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: (sound of pots and pans clanging)
12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay mounted, thanks
12:21
Kate: Adam Mazur have / develop sufficient stuff to be greater than a #5?  Appears kinda meh in the meanwhile, however the Marlins apparently made some tweaks after getting him on the deadline final yr.
12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Appeared tremendous susceptible to me throughout his large league outings, I’m fairly anxious.
12:21
SpicieBoy: why aren’t there anymore large free brokers coming from Cuba like there have been within the 2010s? Looks like for about 5-10 years, there have been a number of Cuban free brokers signing 8-figure offers every winter after which all of a sudden it simply stopped
12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote about this in a Hardball Occasions annual happening…uh…seven years in the past? We went from older guys like Livan and El Duque and Jose Contreras, to guys coming over of their prime like Cespedes, to guys coming over of their early twenties (Arozarena, Robert, Yordan) to them signing proper at 16 in a whole lot of instances…
12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: The expertise there was finite, it was an under-tapped “useful resource” (blech) that has now been tapped all the way in which, I suppose.
12:25
Felix: Now that the Giants signed Adames and Fitzgerald appears to be like to play second, what’s the outlook on Luciano?
12:26
Eric A Longenhagen: RF, been that method for some time imo.
12:26
Unsure Alec Bohm: When will Aidan Miller realistically be prepared? Do you suppose he components into the Phillies (rumored) willingness to pay attention on Bohm?
12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Yah know, I believe it’d. I actually don’t like the concept of transferring Bohm, however I do suppose Miller is a stud and may very well be “prepared” pretty quickly.
12:28
Bob “Robert” Costas: You’re on the clock Eric. Who’re you selecting? Jamie Arnold, Bremner, or Seth Hernandez?
12:28
Eric A Longenhagen: Bremner, then Sethy
12:28
Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is there consensus on what led to guys like Cal Raleigh or Austin Wells turning into stellar framers? It’s not unusual for me to see guys with crummy commencement grades stage up within the majors, nevertheless it’s clearly not luck.
12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: Good query, Yanks have good catcher dev avenue cred, Cal I suppose I’d attribute it to measurement/energy/work. You’re proper that at varied factors (particularly with Wells) these guys had been thought of dangerous defenders. Cal, iirc, was extra divisive and a few people thought he framed nicely at FSU (quants, i need to say).
12:30
wheelhouse: Would you place Jasson in CF Bellinger in LF or vice versa
12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d let the younger OFs, the Ozzies, Ben Rice and I assume Grisham compete for spots and transfer Bellinger wherever you should to be able to have the very best lineup.
12:32
wheelhouse: Do you suppose Murakami is value sitting out the Alonso or Walker negotiations to attend for and signal, assuming a workforce can get him? Clearly Vlad might be far and away greatest FA at 1B subsequent offseason barring extension, however there’s solely one in all him
12:32
Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, an excessive amount of hit device danger, I’d take Walker forward of the opposite two.
12:33
Determined pirates fan: Any up to date ideas on Termarr Johnson following the AFL?
12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Nonetheless love how his arms work, suppose they’re in the proper place typically sufficient for him to get to energy and play 2B on a regular basis. Gonna Okay so much, he’s not Cano or something like that.
12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: Dobbins and Fitts
12:34
Maddoning: In your Cubs listing, no Alexander Canario, regardless that he nonetheless has rookie standing…..are you that low on him, or do you take into account him “graduated” anyway?
12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: He doesn’t have rookie standing anymore
12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Baseball Ref has develop into unreliable for rookie standing. It’s flawed about Kilian, too.
12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: This has been true for the final couple of years.
12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: Go depend Canario’s roster days, he exceeds 45 in both Could or July, fairly comfortably over.
12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: Johnson appears tailor made for that
12:36
Hugh: Are there sure traits (or statistics) of productive hitters at AAA that make you not consider their success at that stage will carry to the majors? Okay fee of round 30% looks like one, curious when you have others.
12:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Splits versus 94+ mph fastballs
12:38
Justin: The Pirates don’t really feel like they’ve a ok state of affairs for being in yr 6 of a rebuild, proper?  What are your ideas?
12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Skenes has been their solely biggity large large hit atop the draft, robust to actually ascend when the others are underwhelming. A few of that has needed to do with a given draft class and lack of superior choices, however groups liek Baltimore ascend as a result of they hit Adley/Gunnar in the identical draft, and that hasn’t occurred right here.
12:39
Maddoning: Do you suppose there is a matter with scouting or org philosophy that’s inflicting the Cubs to overlook a lot on all these high-dollar IFA SS?  Or only a string of dangerous luck?  Little bit of each?
12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: A few of each, maybe not utilizing all of the instruments out there to evaluate hit device stability. It’s tremendous onerous if you’re attempting to guess whether or not the man dealing with 82 mph fastballs more often than not can hit 92.
12:41
onomatopoeia: I used to be clicking by the farm system rankings and altering the report yr, and I seen the greenback worth of sure play types-grades doesn’t change (e.g. $112m for a 70-grade bat at the same time as I toggle to totally different years). Are these values as of the final time this was studied, or are they up to date every year/from time to time and the quantity displayed is simply all the time the most recent valuation? Love the content material – thanks for your whole work!
12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: From the lone time Craig Edwards did the valuations. It may most likely use a re-up, that’s 5 years in the past now?
12:41
Justin: Is Enmanuel Valdez nonetheless intriguing to you in any method?  He looks as if he has the power to hit the ball onerous and hit the ball continuously however idk!
12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a kind of guys who I didn’t like and I let others persuade me he was good, and I remorse it.
12:41
Kelvin Cato: What does Jacob Melton must iron out to be an element within the Astros OF in 2025? They don’t appear to be prioritizing OF additions put up Tucker deal and the present state of affairs is skinny to say the least.
12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Darkhorse ROY candidate
12:42
sup3rjosh: How do the contact charges look on Emil Morales after his enormous DSL season?
12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: maintain please
12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Under common
12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: 68% contact, nutty energy for his age, although
12:43
Billy the Marlin: If he improves his protection. What’s Agustin Ramirez ceiling?
12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: high 10 catcher
12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: I actually fear that man is gonna crack open somebody’s head together with his backswing
12:44
Dan: I’ve been listening to so much (and have learn you say the identical) about right-right energy hitting first basemen being a troublesome profile. I’m curious why that’s the case? Is it strictly due to the platoon drawback?
12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, from a syllogistic reasoning standpoint you’d slightly have a LHH something than a RHH something, you’d slightly have a SS than a 3B, and so on. The underside of that spectrum is RHH 1B, and I believe we see within the participant inhabitants that on the fringes of rosters that issues so much. While you’re Miguel Cabrera, not a lot.
12:45
Maddoning: Has there been a drop-off of prospect high quality/amount out of Venezuela, given the unrest and different issues there?
12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: There was a stretch after they had been underscouted however now there’s a course of that enables them to be seen in Colombia. It’s a troublesome state of affairs for the gamers (and all Venezuelans) and for the scouts.
12:46
Dan: Additionally simply noticed Robert Murray say the Astros are near signing Christian Walker. Attention-grabbing that they went again to signing one other getting older 1B…
12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Ah, actually? In that case, I’m gonna miss watching that man 20 minutes from the home.
12:48
AA burner: Pleased holidays, Eric! Drake Baldwin has the best xwOBA of any prospect within the Triple-A Statcast period (2021-24) apart from Matt McLain. Is Baldwin the highest catching prospect within the sport?
12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: No, I believe a part of my job, and actually the job of any educated sports activities fan, is to ask your self if issues cross your sports activities fan odor take a look at. Drake is slightly too small for me to suppose he’s going to have Javy Lopez’s energy. He’s good, I like him as a main catcher, however not a .500 SLG man.
12:50
Yovani Gallardo: Do you have got any specific ideas about Tomoyuki Sugano to the Orioles, akin to how he may fare as a member of the O’s rotation?
12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Love him, does it simple, nice command, don’t suppose he has the pure stuff you need going 6+ in a playoff recreation anymore however he’ll play a significant common season function for them.
12:51
George: Are you continue to a believer that CJ Abrams can stick at quick? Looks like he needs to be taking part in OF and simply letting the bat work however that looks like a tough promote in DC.
12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed
12:51
Willy: Does Homer Bush Jr challenge as a daily or onky a defensive bench OF?
12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: Bench man for me, however a very good one.
12:52
>this man<: Do you purchase Druw Jones statistical enhancements in 2nd a part of final season?
12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: Not likely, he simply stopped swinging.
12:52
Eury Perez: What’s the outlook for him going ahead? Nonetheless an enormous arm?
12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: Clearly let’s see how he appears to be like when he pitches once more, however I like Eury each bit as a lot as I like Skenes. He’s a freak.
12:53
Idiotic Failson: As a Yankee fan who has watched Gil pitch I’m fairly certain he has peaked. Am I flawed?
12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: I believe you’re proper, but when he sustains what he did in ’24 you’re psyched about that, proper/
12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be, he principally didn’t get higher since they received him from the Twins after which hastily had that changeup and received in wonderful form.
12:55
Carson: What was the reasoning behind dropping Drew Grey off the Cubs listing, and do you suppose he can recoup his prospect standing in 2025?
12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: Former million greenback HS arm, hasn’t added velo, walked 8 per 9 every of the final two seasons.
12:55
Idiotic Failson: What underneath the radar prospect are you irrationally enthusiastic about?
12:56
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a troublesome one, I’m the radar, Failson.
12:56
Eric A Longenhagen: I couldn’t cease watching Alfredo Duno final weekend.
12:57
Bobby Peru: When studying Shaw’s writeup, I used to be struck by the criticism of his swing. Are these flaws (large leg kick, and so on) fixable?
12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: Not crucial, however it’s bizarre
12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay people, I’ve gotta run. Thanks for coming once more this week. Subsequent week’s chat is up within the air, I’ll be at my previous man’s for the vacation and have to see household. Hope you have got a Merry Christmas, children benefit from the Wednesday Christmas two-week break and catch some Pokemon for me.

 

Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and at the moment lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent 4 years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Data Options and two contributing to prospect protection at ESPN.com. Earlier work may also be discovered at Sports activities On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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