On the finish of the 1972 movie The Candidate, newly-elected US senator Invoice McKay, performed by Robert Redford, asks his adviser Marvin Lucas a easy query: “What can we do now?”
It’s a query which may equally have been requested of Sir Ed Davey, the chief of the Liberal Democrats, as his get together gathers in Brighton this weekend for its first convention since its excellent outcome on the basic election in July.
The Lib Dems noticed their illustration in parliament soar from 15 MPs to 72, permitting them to reclaim from the SNP their place as third-biggest get together within the Commons.
With the Tories decreased to a rump of 121 MPs, the outcome has introduced Davey with a golden alternative to current his get together because the true opposition to a Labour authorities with an enormous parliamentary majority.
Thus far, nonetheless, it has generally appeared as if the Lib Dems are caught between two stools, not sure whether or not to assault the Labour authorities or what stays of the Conservatives.
Polling by Savanta, completely shared with HuffPost UK, highlights the get together’s dilemma.
It exhibits that voters imagine that with Labour in energy, the Lib Dems must “rediscover their goal”.
Awkwardly for Davey, the analysis additionally reveals that Lib Dem voters are fairly proud of the job Keir Starmer is doing as far as prime minister.
They’re the one group, aside from Labour supporters, who give the brand new PM a constructive approval score. And practically a 3rd – 30% – say they like Starmer and his insurance policies.
Chris Hopkins, political analysis director at Savanta instructed HuffPost UK: “Liberal Democrat voters are broadly fairly pleased – with the path of presidency, the problems they’re tackling and Keir Starmer himself.
“That’s an issue for Ed Davey and his workforce, because it means they should discover a stability and finally rediscover their goal, now that they’re holding Labour to account, relatively than the Conservatives.
“The Liberal Democrats are clearly within the strongest place they’ve been in some whereas, and are possible wanting ahead to get together convention.
“Via a mix of message self-discipline on the NHS and sewage, they’ve taken down the Blue Wall. However the query now’s the place subsequent? Do you try and make additional inroads with a depleted Conservative get together, or begin focusing your ire on the authorities – who your voters fairly like?”
Separate analysis by the Extra in Frequent think-tank, additionally seen by HuffPost UK, suggests the Lib Dems have a golden alternative to do even higher on the subsequent election – if they’ve the braveness to understand it.
Focus teams with Lib Dem voters confirmed they need the get together to be a “competent and distinctive” opposition, pushing Labour for more durable motion on local weather change and a more in-depth relationship with the EU.
Chris Annous of Extra in Frequent stated the 72 Lib Dem MPs additionally must “set up themselves as group champions” in the event that they need to return to parliament on the subsequent election.
“There may be room for pushing for a more in-depth relationship with Europe and a faster timetable on local weather motion in a manner that’s unlikely to backfire both within the Blue Wall or the Liberal Democrats personal ‘Yellow Wall’, that now extends from Eastbourne to Exmoor, however can as an alternative assist the get together set up themselves as a particular opposition to Labour,” he stated.
“These two points are well-liked each with their 2024 voters and those that thought of voting Liberal Democrat in 2024.”
Hugh Hastings through Getty Photos
“It’s fairly clear that the Tories have gone right into a even larger diploma of meltdown since July 4, and their management election is occurring till November.
“We’ve already demonstrated that we’re an efficient opposition. One instance is on Labour’s determination to chop winter gasoline funds. That doesn’t really feel just like the change that individuals voted for.”
A senior Lib Dem supply stated: “Lots of people voted for us to eliminate the Tories, however in the event you have a look at the polling, the highest cause was due to our place on the NHS and care, so it’s actually essential that we proceed to marketing campaign on that problem.
“Folks put their belief in us on the election and now we have to work onerous to maintain that belief.
“If you happen to have a look at the seats the place we’re now in second place, they’re Conservative-facing. The way in which we predict we will defeat extra Tories subsequent time is by being a greater opposition than them. We’re going to be united and coherent whereas they tear themselves aside.”
Ed Davey spent the election marketing campaign as if he was on a six-week lengthy stag journey, paddleboarding, browsing, salsa dancing and bungee-jumping his manner across the nation.
For him and his get together, the intense enterprise of holding Labour to account whereas consigning the Tories to irrelevance begins now.