Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/8/24

Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon gang!

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, not an organized gang

Dallas: Why can’t Ke’Bryan Hayes hit extra persistently, and is there any probability some group is perhaps keen to commerce for him this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: He’s a good contact hitter, however his pitch choice has all the time been reasonably dysfunctional; he’s not a Javy Baez-esque flailer, however he hits loads of reasonably mediocre pitches and lets loads of good ones go by

Dan Szymborski: Add in taht he has energy upside and the swings in fortune might be fairly intense

White Sox FO: What “exterior the field” supervisor ought to I exploit for the remainder of the season?

Dan Szymborski: Draw a random seatholder each seventh inning stretch and make that individual the supervisor for the subsequent recreation.

Dan: Two good begins for Kikuchi after the Astros have modified his pitch utilization. Had been these calling this deal a fleece overreacting?

Dan Szymborski: The factor is, the commerce should *might* have been greater than what was wanted to get him

Dan Szymborski: In any case, I wasn’t fairly as unfavorable concerning the commerce as some others have been. I don’t just like the prospects fairly as a lot and I favored Kikuchi extra (which is why I included him in my fantasy commerce piece this yr)

Dan Szymborski: Although I didn’t give the Blue Jays as a lot in prospects

Datt Mamon: Are you in any method bullish on Gavin Stone transferring ahead (that means subsequent season, actually)? He appears to have hit a little bit of a wall.

Dan Szymborski: I imply, he’s actually not *dangerous*

Dan Szymborski: however he appears to have issues ending off batters on two strikes

Dan Szymborski: (and that is purely from my emotions, I can’t actually dig too deep within the context of a fast chat)

Matt: There’ve been a number of complaints concerning the useless ball impacting offensive manufacturing this yr.  Do you assume that’s true? And in that case, how does ZIPS account for the useless ball when projecting numbers for future seasons?

Dan Szymborski: I feel it’s very doubtless, however I don’t have adequate data to say it’s true. Sadly, there’s not a lot to do; MLB has no transparency on their ball building and I’ve no method of realizing what offense will probably be like sooner or later past what it’s in recent times

Insert Witty Title Right here: Curious to know the way a lot clout you might have within the baseball world. Like should you had one of the best concept that may save baseball, do you might have contacts the place you can make a name to the commissioner and pitch your concept?

Dan Szymborski: Determining one’s personal repute is an unattainable activity to strategy objectively. My intestine tells me no, however I can’t be optimistic about that.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even certain what my repute is should you simply polled the smaller analytics group. I *suspect* folks like my work and maybe dislike me personally, however I don’t actually knwo that

Visitor: CJ Abrams laughs within the face of pitch choice, turning Birdsong into Wormcophany

Dan Szymborski: heh

Phil: Tony La Russa is ready by the telephone.

Eddie: Sort of apparent NYY must be going Soto Choose 1,2 however we all know that gained’t occur. In the event that they need to bat 2nd and third, would you flip them at this level?

Dan Szymborski: Given how little completely different lineups are, I’d principally put gamers the place they’re comfy until the concept is ludicrous

Dan Szymborski: Like if Martin Maldonado feels most comfortably main off, I don’t try this

AARON JUDGE!!: How a lot has helped his remainder of profession projections this yr by exhibiting that 2022 was not a fluke?

Dan Szymborski: Fairly a bit, however age and damage historical past nonetheless type of maintain down these numbers

Dan Szymborski: I’d vote for him for the Corridor *proper now* although, primarily based on his insane peak

Dan Szymborski: He was solely 208th in HRs via 20s, which tends to maintain down the profession totals

McGraw45: All time favourite minor leaguer? Hank McGraw (Tug’s brother) is a legend in my household, who all say he was higher than Tug however groups wouldn’t promote him for being a hippie

Dan Szymborski: Luke Easter. After his MLB profession led to his late 30s, he principally mentioned “screw that” and dominated the Worldwide League for practically one other *decade*

Visitor: Is Benintendi’s future ZiPS projection now unfavorable for the rest of his profession?

Visitor: if Joe Ryan makes his subsequent begin what number of hats will Thomas Woodrooffe’s descendants eat

Dan Szymborski: (hold on for Benintendi)

Dan Szymborski: In equity, he didn’t actually eat his hat, only a hat-shaped cake, IIRC

Dan Szymborski: You need to by no means make bets, brags, or boasts which you could’t feasibly fulfill.

Dan Szymborski: Like, I mentioned I’d eat Cincinnati chili if Kyle Nelson didn’t end the season with an ERA below 4. I didn’t say I’d eat a 2011 Toyota Corolla.

Justin: By way of a making it a much less excessive surroundings, I all the time surprise if the Rockies would have been higher constructing Coors Area with nearer fences and a smaller outfield. Do you assume the tradeoff between extra homers and a decrease Babip could be price it?

Dan Szymborski: I’m truthfully undecided what one of the best strategy is.

Dan Szymborski: The group is definitely slowly bettering, however I’ve zero religion in possession

Dan Szymborski: If Bridich was nonetheless there, Brenton Doyle could be in Japan by now and Tovar blocked by Amed Rosario or somebody

#1MetsFan: Baseball is enjoyable recreation. Its a possibilities wonderland, the place every pitch adjustments the stats for everyone on the sphere. That being mentioned, inform me I’m improper once I say the Mets will fall simply out of the wild card spot. TELL ME!

Dan Szymborski: You’re a Mets fan. The Mets might have a 15 recreation lead within the NL East in mid-september and your intestine would say they’ll most likely simply lose 16 video games within the standings within the final two weeks!

Massive Mind Boy.: Cubs 9 of their final 12. Do they sneak in to the Wild Card?

Dan Szymborski: It’s actually POSSIBLE

Dan Szymborski: The NL Central didn’t function a ton of aggressive shopping for and the Cubs have been all the time higher than their document

Atheist Yelich: Should you had the ability to decide on the playoff format in any doable method (variety of groups, video games in every collection, and so forth.), what format would you select that optimizes the standard of the postseason, commerce deadline, incentive for groups to strive, and so forth

Dan Szymborski: There are loads of codecs I’d favor

Dan Szymborski: However one factor I completely would do with out the biggest adjustments is require the lower-seeded group to comb to win a 3 recreation collection.

Dan Szymborski: There’s nothing inherently improper with having massive playoffs, as long as the issue of advancing within the playoffs displays the season and is massive sufficient to be significant

Dan Szymborski: You would feasibly design an prolonged playoff system wherein permitting *all* 30 groups in is sensible.

Dan Szymborski: Not essentially a *sensible* one given time constraints although

Dan Szymborski: I completely don’t thoughts the White Sox getting a shot to topple the Phillies. However that shot must be one thing like a seven-game sweep.

#1MetsFan: And what’s for lunch.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not an consuming day

Visitor: You’ve been appointed new supervisor of the White Sox. How quickly are you able to be in Chicago?

Dan Szymborski: I feel I’d go and commit the least critical crime that may take me out of consideration for the job

Massive Mind Boy.: Ideas on White Sox firing supervisor?

Dan Szymborski: deck chairs, Titanic

Visitor: greatest pasta form aesthetically?

Dan Szymborski: alphabet. I like consuming loopy phrases

druidiful: I do know its not you, however who ought to we inform that it appears just like the leaderboard web page isnt up to date accurately? It’s saying that Choose solely has 38 homers and Witt has 19 once they each have extra. The participant pages are appropriate, until you go into recreation logs which have the final recreation as 8/4/24.

Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs twitter is often learn fairly rigorously

Dan Szymborski: Telling me isn’t a nasty concept although, I’m doubtless one of many simpler folks to get ahold of and I can deliver it up on slack

Dan Szymborski: When folks on Reddit categorical FanGraphs points, I regularly deliver them up

Playing cards fan: What was it that your system noticed about Masynn Winn final yr if you had him as large mover ?  It by no means appeared that he confirmed in MILB what he’s exhibiting in MLB however clearly zips noticed it

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if there was something *particularly* that it noticed in him aside from the truth that he repeated the yr at a excessive degree whereas nonetheless actually younger in 2023

Dan Szymborski: as in repeated his 2022 efficiency

Dan Szymborski: Even with ZiPS not going full neural community, it’s complicated sufficient that it will possibly generally be tough to all the time grok out the why

Dan’s Mother: Is Zips able to predicting MVP? In that case, does it have Choose or Witt as AL MVP.

Dan Szymborski: I do have an MVP predictor, although I haven’t used it. Possibly I shoudl for Monday!

Rob: I such as you personally. They will go f themselves.

Dan Szymborski: I’m probably not THAT likable

#1MetsFan: You narrow so deep together with your reality. Thanks Dan

Mike Trout: Can ZIPS estimate the percentages of us each seeing a 150-game Mike Trout season once more? And would you take into account it dependable, or is the science of damage prediction not way more superior than the science of dowsing for water?

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t do a nasty job — weirdly, from Jeff Z’s work, ZiPS truly does a extremely good job at predicting enjoying time for guys we *know* are main leaguers

Dan Szymborski: However I’m undecided it’s THAT exact

Dan Szymborski: and I don’t actually have it configured to offer that readout simply

Adam: The White Sox had an opportunity to do the funniest factor and hearth Grifol the day they lastly gained a recreation.  So shut.

Visitor: however Dan I assumed ZiPS was simply you spitballing numbers

Frank: How nervous are we about Corbin Burnes? He doesn’t appear as sharp recently (though nonetheless getting wins).

Dan Szymborski: I’m not

Dan Szymborski: however I can solely communicate for myself

Native: Is there a strategy to take heed to ones native group announcers as soon as the playoffs come or solely the nationwide broadcasters?

Dan Szymborski: I feel you’d have to rent them with out them violating their contracts?

captain planet: WITHOUT LOOKING: Who was the higher pitcher, Hiroki Kuroda or Daisuke Matsusaka?

Dan Szymborski: Simply Kuroda, as long as we’re speaking MLB

Visitor: even when the White Sox don’t cross the 2003 Tigers in losses, what are the probabilities they handle to do it in GB? presently 40.5 behind Cleveland; Detroit ended up 47 again in ’03

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I’m probably not outfitted for that

Benjamin, J: Should you’re the Guardians, what prospect would you promote to offer an offensive jolt within the arm? Brito? Manzardo? Valera?

Dan Szymborski: Manzardo

I Miss Kyle in Boston: Apologies if that is doubling up my query, new to the chats and undecided if it despatched the primary time. Schwarber goes to complete his age 31 season with ~280 dwelling runs, does he have an outdoor probability at 500?

Dan Szymborski: I get an absurd quantity of questions, so me having the ability to unanswer defintiely doesn’t imply I didn’t see

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks he has a about 180 left in him earlier than decline takes him away, in order that’s actually sufficient to have an outdoor probability at 500

Dan Szymborski: (180 not together with this yr)

Adam: Does ZiPS have a strategy to approximate an entire season out of groups given their roster building at a specific second?  In different phrases, what number of wins would the July model of the Dodgers with all their accidents be anticipated to provide over a full season?

Dan Szymborski: So long as I’ve the roster, ZiPS does that

TomBruno23: Favourite MiLBer is Ramon Sambo. Man might swipe some baggage. At the moment a coach with the Norfolk Tides.

Visitor: greatest strategy for Rockies: transfer group to Loss of life Valley

2025 Orioles: Fairly, how significantly better might the Orioles lineup be subsequent yr (assuming Santander is retained)? They’re Prime 3 this yr, however there’s a hoard of younger hitters. Holliday, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, and so forth. will probably be one other yr into their careers. Or would you let Santander stroll and put all your accessible cash into pitching contemplating all the accidents and query marks there?

Dan Szymborski: I feel they’re kinda close to the place they’ll doubtless be. When you’re this good, the chance is usually one-sided

Dan Szymborski: oh crap, I used to be speculated to do Andrew Benintendi

Dan Szymborski: proejction

Jason N: I’ve a query impressed by Angel Hernandez.  When he retired, I learn some commentary on FG (Ben possibly?) claiming that Hernandez was rated a mean umpire a decade in the past and it speaks to how a lot umpiring has improved.  Bought me eager about Maddux and Glavine for some cause.  I bear in mind a lot broadcaster commentary about how they labored the skin of the zone so nicely that they commonly loved an expanded strike zone because the video games went on.  In the event that they have been enjoying in immediately’s recreation with these umps (and their gradual fastballs), do you assume both of them would thrive in a contemporary rotation?

Dan Szymborski: Was he? It actually didn’t really feel that method!

Dan Szymborski: If he’s higher than I assumed, the AI track I wrote for his retirement is basically imply.

Jon D: Pirates are a playoff group when? What do they should add this offseason to make your reply 2025?

Dan Szymborski: They might really want so as to add bats in free company and pay for them

Dan Szymborski: They coudl actually signal Juan Soto and have a considerably below-average payroll. They gained’t, after all

Pirates Hurdles: If Schwarbs did get to 500, he would have the bottom WAR by anybody by nearly 2 fold lower than Papi.

Dan Szymborski: Somebody’s gotta be worst at one thing

Dan Szymborski: If Nick Markakis had held on a bit longer, he coudl’ve been the worst 3000 hit member

Dan Szymborski: and there’s a good probability that Giancarlo Stanton is well the worst 500 homer hitter ever

Dan Szymborski: (If schwarber doesn’t get there)

Harry: Should you have been AA how would you strategy shortstop this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: relies upon if I can lengthen Bichette

Dan Szymborski: err

Dan Szymborski: no

Dan Szymborski: braves

Dan Szymborski: (sorry, I nonetheless affiliate AA with the Jays for the primary few seconds I take into consideration him)

Dan Szymborski: I’d go significantly after Adames if I’m the Braves

Choose’s Protection: Choose is getting killed on the defensive metrics proper now. If I’m studying the participant pages proper he’s being credited for -15 UZR runs in 57 innings in proper discipline. This is sufficient to give Witt the general WAR lead. What’s inflicting this? The metrics all really feel he’s significantly better in middle than proper.

Dan Szymborski: You’re not studying the appropriate column

Dan Szymborski: He has -0.5 UZR at RF in 57 innings. He has -15.3 UZR *per 150 video games* in RF this yr, which is only a tempo measurement

Dan Szymborski: And in any case, WAR hasn’t used UZR in just a few years

Dan Szymborski: so even when he have been at -15 runs in 57 innings in RF in UZR, it could haven’t any impact on his WAR

Dan Szymborski: And there’s no conclusion concerning the RF/CF break up to attract since 57 innings is nearly nugatory to attract a conclusion from

Dan Szymborski: We don’t have a full profession of statcast fielding, however primarily based on UZR, the eight run distinction between his UZR/150 in rightfield (9.1) and his UZR/150 in middle (1.2) is just not noteworthy. Typical is about 10 runs.

Adam: Who’s one of the best guess for a group to a) miss this yr’s playoffs, and b) make it subsequent yr?  What concerning the reverse?

Dan Szymborski: Cubs most likely for the primary one?

Dan Szymborski: The largest differential for the second *may* be the Yankees proper now, just because Juan Soto is unsigned

Dreamin: How significantly better does Ketel Marte need to be than Ohtani over the remainder of the season to win the MVP?

Dan Szymborski: Most likely a very good bit

Dan Szymborski: I feel lots of people are unaware simply how ridiculous Ketel’s been for the reason that begin of June

Visitor: Why are you hanging out within the Rockies subreddit?

Dan Szymborski: I make a number of poor choices

Dan Szymborski: On that notice, it’s time for me to go out for one more week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks as all the time for popping out, and I hope to see you subsequent time!

Dan Szymborski: OH CRAP HANGON

Dan Szymborski: Yr BA OBP SLG WAR   2025 .260 .327 .383 0.8   2026 .257 .325 .376 0.6   2027 .258 .326 .377 0.6   2028 .252 .318 .363 0.2   2029 .249 .319 .361 0.0   2030 .226 .291 .301 -0.2

Smiling Politely: Excited to make the dwell chat!

Dan, I’m the one one left on Gavin Lux Hill, however I do know you have been there with me. Does he have a future as a optimistic platoon bat, a minimum of? He’s been hitting fairly nicely for the reason that ASG, however after all, that doesn’t negate *historical past*

Dan Szymborski: I feel on the very least he’s a very good complementary expertise

Dan Szymborski: okay, NOW I’m going