Cody Bellinger has one of many extra vital opt-out choices of the offseason. The Cubs heart fielder/first baseman must determine whether or not to bypass the remaining two years and $50MM on the three-year, $80MM contract he signed late final winter. If he foregoes this yr’s opt-out, he’d have one other out clause throughout the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20MM left on the deal).
Final weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA As we speak wrote that Bellinger was “totally anticipated” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t appear to be set in stone, nevertheless. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported this night that Bellinger has but to determine whether or not he’ll check the market.
Bellinger is wrapping up a stable if barely disappointing yr. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 residence runs over 545 plate appearances. He has basically maintained the career-best pure contact skill that he confirmed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his journeys this yr, marginally increased than the 15.6% strikeout price he managed throughout his first season on the North Facet.
The downturn has been in his energy output. Bellinger had eight extra residence runs and 13 extra extra-base hits a yr in the past. He has one other week so as to add to this season’s totals however isn’t going to make up that a lot floor. His slugging proportion is down greater than .090 factors from final yr’s glorious .525 mark. The sustainability of final yr’s energy manufacturing was at all times the most important query. Bellinger obtained to his spectacular 2023 output regardless of a below-average 31.4% laborious contact price and 87.9 MPH common exit velocity. This yr’s batted ball metrics are equally middling and the outcomes have certainly regressed.
There’s however nonetheless loads to love within the profile. Bellinger has confirmed to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s one other season faraway from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him earlier than his closing arbitration yr. It’s protected to say that his 47-homer MVP type isn’t coming again, however Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s nonetheless able to taking part in heart discipline, though the Cubs have used him more and more in proper discipline and at first base.
Bellinger has graded as a mean defender in somewhat greater than 400 heart discipline innings. He has posted comparable marks in additional than 350 innings in proper. The Cubs’ greatest outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in heart. One other crew might give Bellinger extra constant reps up the center for at the very least a season or two.
The 2-time All-Star stays one of many youthful potential free brokers within the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s greater than a yr youthful than Harrison Bader, who’d most likely be the highest heart fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s practically a yr youthful than Anthony Santander and about the identical age as Tyler O’Neill. Whereas there’s an honest quantity of nook outfield expertise — headlined, in fact, by Juan Soto — the middle discipline class shouldn’t be robust. Bellinger declined a qualifying supply final winter and is not eligible to obtain one, so there’d be no draft choose forfeiture this time round.
That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and respectable all-around manufacturing, he’d have an honest argument for a four- and even five-year deal. If he merely wished to maximise the assure, he shouldn’t have a problem beating the $50MM remaining on his present contract. That’d require taking a paycut subsequent season although. Bellinger wouldn’t match subsequent yr’s $27.5MM wage on an annual foundation over 4 or 5 years.
If Bellinger and his camp on the Boras Company count on his energy to rebound, bypassing the opt-out could be the probably choice. He’d have one other probability to retest the market prematurely of his age-30 marketing campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago could require taking part in proper discipline for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, although, doubtlessly elevating questions amongst different groups about his long-term viability in heart discipline.
From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would most likely be the higher consequence. That’d allow them to play Seiya Suzuki extra ceaselessly in proper discipline as a substitute of limiting him to designated hitter — the place he’d must play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s robust yr lessens the necessity to have Bellinger round as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, within the bullpen and behind the rotation.
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