Is your neighborhood unsafe or are you simply watching the information?

Good morning. It’s Wednesday, Aug. 21. Right here’s what you’ll want to know to begin your day.

What’s election season with out an onslaught of polls?

As an example: California voters will resolve on Proposition 36 in November, which might impose stricter sentences for repetitive theft and offenses involving fentanyl.

A latest ballot from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Research, co-sponsored by The Occasions, reveals a majority of voters in favor of these stronger punishments.

One other survey (additionally from that UC Berkeley institute and The Occasions) reveals legal professional Nathan Hochman with an edge over incumbent George Gascón.

“Many appear responsible Gascón for the sense that crime is spiraling uncontrolled,” Occasions reporter Conner Sheets mentioned, “whilst some statistics contradict that narrative.”

Political polling can, famously, get it mistaken, however may also be a helpful indicator of how individuals understand the world round them and what to do about it. Primarily based on latest surveys and political rhetoric, it appears voters are influenced much less by contextual information and extra by vibes.

However what do the numbers present?

The variety of homicides in California and the U.S. total dropped final 12 months in contrast with 2022. Fewer rapes had been additionally reported within the state final 12 months, although a rise in robberies and aggravated assaults fueled a 3% enhance in total violent crime.

General property crimes had been down barely in 2023, although automotive thefts elevated almost 8%, per a report from state Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta.

Each homicides and shootings fell within the metropolis of Los Angeles after a pandemic surge, in line with LAPD information. However homicides elevated 8% final 12 months within the county of L.A., in line with the Sheriff’s Division.

Extra not too long ago, many main U.S. cities are reporting sharp drops in homicides within the first half of 2024 in contrast with the identical six months in 2023.

By some key indicators, many communities are seeing crimes recede after the COVID crime surge. Regardless of that, individuals don’t really feel secure.

In a Gallup ballot printed in November, 63% of respondents mentioned crime was an “extraordinarily severe” or “very severe” downside within the U.S., whereas 17% mentioned the identical about their native space. Each had been the very best shares of these responses in additional than 20 years of surveys.

One consider that feelings-versus-data disconnect, as my colleague Noah Bierman reported final 12 months, is partisanship. Republicans usually rank massive cities as far much less secure than Democrats in Gallup polls.

However it’s additionally essential to notice that media protection — and the stream of content material it breeds on social media — performs a serious position in how secure or unsafe we really feel. As crime stays a focus this election cycle, let’s unpack that.

Imply world syndrome

I spoke with Pamela Mejia, director of analysis and affiliate program director at Berkeley Media Research Group, whose analysis focuses on media narratives about violence and crime.

She advised me the response individuals must perceived crime is commonly formed via a cognitive bias referred to as “imply world syndrome.” “The extra media that folks eat that depicts the world as a violent place, the extra possible individuals are to imagine that the world round them is certainly a violent place,” Mejia mentioned. “That’s going to then have an effect on their perception on this planet round them and … the selections they make ought to mirror that, whether or not that’s by way of who they vote for, who they assist, [or] what coverage platforms they’re open to.”

Information media typically focus a slim consideration on “essentially the most high-profile or excessive acts,” she mentioned, which leads most of us to have a naturally visceral response.

“It’s concern, it’s anxiousness, it’s terror, and it’s a really acute sense of hopelessness,” Mejia mentioned. These emotions are then “leveraged by totally different political events,” she mentioned, whatever the precise prevalence of crime.

She additionally pointed to Gallup survey outcomes printed final August that confirmed youthful adults who lived in cities had been extra prone to rank cities safer than older, suburban residents. And whereas it’s “not an ideal [one-to-one] comparability,” Mejia mentioned Pew Analysis Heart surveys displaying older Individuals are overwhelmingly getting their information from tv — which options heavy crime protection — recommend “some overlap” in older information shoppers’ perceptions of crime.

Social media have kicked these narratives into overdrive

Whereas Mejia acknowledges some newsrooms have moved away from extra sensational portrayals of violence and crime with efforts so as to add context and options, social media are a complete totally different sport.

Chances are you’ll observe or come throughout posts from accounts that aren’t conventional information organizations, however fairly faceless aggregators who repost information footage, surveillance video and eyewitness video of crimes — typically with out citing sources. The shortage of vetting on social media creates extra hazards, Mejia defined:

How can information media enhance?

Mejia believes accountable information protection of crime ought to stability informing the general public with out sensationalism and keep away from downplaying the very actual toll and trauma of violence.

“If we don’t acknowledge that … we’re additionally creating an area the place individuals are simply not going to be receptive to listening to no matter comes subsequent,” she mentioned.

One other suggestion: Diversify the voices featured in crime reporting. Mejia mentioned her analysis reveals police officers are usually quoted most steadily, “virtually on the expense of others.”

“That performs a fairly profound position in shaping whose voices have legitimacy,” she mentioned. “If we’re not essentially listening to from neighborhood leaders, religion leaders, native politicians, violence preventionists, medical people, any of the opposite individuals who play a task in constructing our communities and really making communities safer [then] it’s loads tougher to open the door to conversations about … what’s the context towards which that is taking place? What are we doing [about it]?”

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