Analysis: Call to disband PKK reshapes Turkiye, Syria power dynamics | Syria’s War News

The implications of the decision by the founding father of the Kurdistan Staff’ Occasion (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, for the group to disband are nonetheless reverberating – not simply in Turkiye but additionally within the wider area.

Shifting alliances in Syria – exemplified by the latest settlement between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian authorities – verify that Ocalan’s message isn’t remoted or purely home however presents an important alternative that might redefine every little thing from Turkiye’s safety insurance policies to the longer term positioning of Kurdish actors, shaping the following part of regional energy dynamics.

Ocalan, in a press release delivered from a Turkish jail in late February, referred to as on the PKK to “convene your congress and decide. All teams should lay down their weapons, and the PKK ought to dissolve itself.”

The PKK management – from its longstanding command centre in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains – responded to Ocalan’s name by declaring a unilateral ceasefire with ultimate disbandment in addition to choices on disarmament and different issues delayed till the congress could be held in a month or two. Turkiye stays agency in its demand that each one PKK-affiliated teams, together with its Syrian offshoots, should disband unconditionally.

The PKK’s decades-long battle with Turkiye has killed greater than 40,000 folks. Ocalan, along with being the chief of the motion ideologically, additionally led the group’s armed rebel till his seize in 1999. The PKK is taken into account a terrorist organisation by Turkiye, america and the European Union.

Whereas Ocalan has advocated for ceasefires up to now, that is the primary time he has referred to as for the PKK to stop to exist, the explanation for this possible being linked to shifts in Kurdish political actions, Turkish state technique and broader regional realignments, particularly the evolving dynamics in Syria.

Eradicating the Kurdish ‘worry issue’

The diminishing strategic worth of armed battle has coincided with the rise of Kurdish political actors, weakening the PKK’s position as a “worry issue” in Turkish politics.

As soon as instrumental in mobilising nationalist votes for the ruling Justice and Improvement Occasion (AK Occasion), the PKK’s affect is fading as pro-Kurdish politics acquire traction.

The Peoples’ Democratic Occasion (HDP) broke new floor in June 2015 by surpassing the ten % electoral threshold required to safe parliamentary illustration – an achievement that pro-Kurdish events had beforehand managed solely by operating impartial candidates.

Right now, the occasion now referred to as the Peoples’ Equality and Democratic Occasion (DEM) performs a pivotal position in elections as Kurdish votes form Turkiye’s political panorama.

In opposition to this backdrop, Ocalan’s name for the PKK’s disbandment is an effort to broaden the house for Kurdish political illustration throughout the democratic system.

Kurdish political mobilisation by political events has turn out to be extra highly effective and influential than armed battle.

The expansion has not been unimpeded as state-imposed restrictions have continued.

For instance, Selahattin Demirtas, the previous chief of the HDP and a former presidential candidate, stays imprisoned, and Kurdish politicians and activists accused by the federal government of being near the PKK face harsh sentences underneath “anti-terror” legal guidelines.

After the 2024 municipal elections, the federal government as soon as once more appointed trustees in some Kurdish-majority municipalities, stopping elected mayors from the DEM occasion from taking workplace.

These restrictions, nonetheless, might start to ease with the gradual normalisation of pro-Kurdish politics, which might emerge on account of the removing of the “terrorist” label from the broader motion and the development of a brand new narrative that positions pro-Kurdish representatives as recognised political actors.

Turkiye’s stake

For the AK Occasion, consolidating electoral help requires a fragile steadiness between addressing Kurdish calls for – and gaining these votes – and sustaining Turkish nationalist backing.

Had this initiative to speak to the PKK been pushed solely by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with out the involvement of Nationalist Motion Occasion (MHP) chief Devlet Bahceli, who had lengthy opposed any answer aside from a army one, nationalist opposition to it will have been much more pronounced.

By having Bahceli invite Ocalan to handle parliament and advocate for the “proper to hope” – a measure supporting the discharge of people, together with Ocalan, who’ve served 25 years – and interact in dialogue with DEM figures he had beforehand labelled as “terrorists”, the federal government has managed to pre-emptively comprise hardline resistance, making the transition extra politically viable.

A profitable peace course of might assist rekindle help for the AK Occasion amongst Kurdish voters who had turned away from the occasion for the reason that collapse of the Turkiye-PKK peace course of in 2015 and the federal government’s flip in direction of Turkish nationalism – in addition to entice a brand new era of Kurdish voters.

However, opposition inside Turkiye to such a growth stays a wild card. Hardline factions throughout the authorities and in nationalist circles are possible to withstand any perceived concessions to pro-Kurdish political actors.

Externally, the “Kurdish subject” has lengthy been an impediment in Turkiye’s overseas relations, significantly with Western allies and the EU, for which Turkiye stays a candidate nation.

Issues over rights and liberties, the undermining of Kurdish rights and political illustration, the imprisonment of Kurdish politicians and Western help for Kurdish teams combating ISIL (ISIS) in Syria have all contributed to tensions in Turkiye’s overseas relations.

By proactively managing this transition, Ankara might body itself because the architect of Kurdish political normalisation, strengthening its stance each regionally and internationally.

In the meantime, the truth that neither Turkiye nor the PKK can obtain absolute victory militarily has turn out to be more and more clear. The decline in energetic battle inside Turkiye has additionally reshaped public notion.

Turkiye’s army operations in Syria – Euphrates Protect (2016-2017), Olive Department (2018) and Peace Spring (2019) – shifted the first battleground from Turkiye’s border areas into northern Syria, the place clashes between the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA) and Syrian Kurdish forces proceed.

This technique has not solely established Turkish-controlled zones but additionally altered the battle’s geography, decreasing direct threats to Turkiye whereas intensifying energy struggles in Syrian areas like Afrin, Ras al-Ain, and Tal Abyad.

The PKK’s disbandment isn’t a performed deal, nonetheless, and opposition events, significantly the Republican Folks’s Occasion (CHP), which is desperately keen to finish the AK Occasion’s 23-year rule, stay hesitant to help the initiative.

Whereas the CHP formally endorses a peaceable decision to the “Kurdish subject”, it’s sceptical of a course of led by Erdogan’s authorities, not realizing what could also be unfolding in closed-door negotiations.

Furthermore, the CHP is cautious about lending legitimacy to a course of that might strengthen the AK Occasion’s enchantment amongst Kurdish voters, significantly with elections sooner or later.

For now, it has adopted a wait-and-see stance as a result of the one factor recognized is the intent of the PKK to dissolve fairly than its precise mechanisms.

The Syrian equation

Ocalan’s enchantment displays a broader shift as nonstate armed teams throughout the area face rising strain to adapt for survival and legitimacy.

In northern Syria, a strategic precedence for the Democratic Union Occasion (PYD) and its armed wing – the Folks’s Defence Items (YPG), which is the core drive within the US-backed SDF – is preserving their territorial and political place.

Arrange in 2003 as a PKK offshoot, the PYD got here into its personal in northern Syria and has been focused in army offensives by Ankara and Ankara-supported teams in Syria, such because the SNA.

Ocalan might have been motivated by a hope {that a} disbanded PKK would end in fewer direct confrontations between Turkiye and the PYD, probably serving to the PYD maintain a degree of self-administration and rights throughout the new Syrian state and structure.

An necessary step on this path got here on Monday when the SDF signed an settlement in Damascus with interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa for his or her forces to merge with the Syrian military and cooperate on a number of financial, social and political fronts.

Whether or not this will probably be sufficient for Turkiye to relent in its pursuit of the SDF depends upon the main points of the settlement and its implementation. Thus far, the settlement has been supported by Erdogan, who emphasised that the complete implementation of the settlement would serve Syria’s safety and stability and profit all Syrians.

Public statements by Overseas Minister Hakan Fidan beforehand confirmed that Turkiye goals to form the phrases of the PYD’s acceptance inside a reconfigured Syrian framework by calling for the removing of overseas PKK components, dismantling the YPG’s army management and integrating the PYD into the Syrian state with out its armed wings or territorial ambitions.

What’s more likely to observe?

A decision of the “Kurdish subject” might improve Turkiye’s diplomatic leverage, particularly with European and American actors essential of its insurance policies towards Kurds domestically and in neighbouring states.

A sustainable course of may additionally ease tensions with Iraq and Syria, the place Turkiye’s operations towards Kurdish teams have brought on friction. This is able to additional strengthen safety and financial cooperation with Baghdad and the brand new authorities in Damascus.

Whereas legislative steps will play an important position in facilitating this transition, a well-defined roadmap with authorized, political and social changes is important.

The main target will quickly shift to the way forward for PKK fighters. In accordance with intensifying public debate in Turkiye, a number of potential pathways exist.

Some might obtain authorized amnesty and reintegration help. Others could also be absorbed into reputable Kurdish political buildings, and a few senior leaders could also be relocated to 3rd nations with their present base in Iraq being a probable vacation spot.

Finally, the sustainability of this course of will probably be decided by significant democratic reforms, increasing cultural and political rights, safeguarding civil liberties and paving the way in which for a brand new democratic constitutional framework as a basis of a extra inclusive political order.

Nonetheless, based mostly on declarations by Turkiye’s state actors, the present imaginative and prescient doesn’t embrace any of those main reforms. How the PKK’s dissolution might happen with out these basic modifications stays an open query. For its fighters, a authorized framework will probably be a necessity for disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration.

Whereas some figures throughout the DEM advocate for a fast-tracked course of to consolidate their political standing and ship good points for his or her constituents, AK Occasion politicians may very well be motivated by electoral considerations, in search of a decision that neutralises tensions with out making deep structural concessions.

The PKK’s ceasefire is a notable first step, however its long-term viability depends upon methods to institutionalise it, which a purely tactical or rushed settlement couldn’t present.

On the identical time, it’s essential to recognise that no peace course of could be constructed on uncompromising calls for or an idealised, frictionless roadmap.

Sustainable peace requires pragmatic options, gradual steps, and an acceptance that negotiations will contain setbacks, competing pursuits and the need of mutual concessions.