Can anybody cease the Mets? That’s not a query I anticipated to be asking this yr, until it was “Can anybody cease the Mets from signing marquee free brokers?” or “Can anybody cease the Mets from imploding in probably the most Mets-y manner possible?” However because the Nationwide League Division Sequence begins, the Mets are on a kind of team-of-destiny runs that appears like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There’s no deficit they’ll’t overcome, no lead they’ll’t squander after which retake within the subsequent inning. They’re upping the diploma of problem considerably beginning Saturday, although: The Phillies have been probably the greatest groups in baseball all yr, they usually’re rested and prepared for what guarantees to be an thrilling sequence.
A story of the tape – Francisco Lindor is nice at x, Bryce Harper is nice at y, Zack Wheeler and Kodai Senga will sq. off in Recreation 1, so on and so forth – doesn’t really feel like the suitable approach to describe this sequence. As an alternative, I’m going to give attention to how every workforce tries to win, and the way these plans are almost definitely to go awry.
The Mets have thrived offensively this yr with a easy blueprint: energy on the high of the lineup and Jose Iglesias someway doing every part else. Lindor is so good that he’s virtually an offense unto himself: He led the Mets in runs (107), RBI (91), steals (29), on-base share (.344), slugging share (.500), and just about every part else you may think about, aside from house runs (33). In that class, he completed one off the workforce lead behind Pete Alonso. Alonso had a down yr in 2024, however he’s excellent on the ability the Mets most want from him: clobbering homers to drive in Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and generally Iglesias. Mark Vientos features as a second Alonso; he’s there to hit homers or advance runners with situational hitting, however he’s contemporary out of situational hitting.
This plan has labored fairly nicely all yr, and it’s labored significantly nicely within the string of playoff and playoff-like video games they’ve received this week. The highest 5 hitters mixed to drive in all of the runs in Monday’s playoff-clinching win in opposition to the Braves. Iglesias and Vientos keyed Tuesday’s victory over the Brewers. A 3-run Alonso homer was all of the scoring they wanted to ship Milwaukee house Thursday evening. It’s hardly an unsustainable plan; the Mets had been seventh in wRC+ (109) and likewise runs scored (768) this yr, near-doppelgängers for the Phillies.
What may go flawed with New York’s offense? It’s fairly straightforward to know. If Lindor, Alonso, and Vientos aren’t supplying the facility, runs are arduous to come back by. Even with Iglesias handing over a career-best season as a slap-hitting spark plug, the Mets play station to station. They’re one of many worst baserunning groups within the majors. Lindor is the most important exception to this rule, although Starling Marte, Tyrone Taylor, and Nimmo are additionally keen to take an additional base right here and there. For probably the most half, runs come both from the mixed excellence of the workforce’s greatest hitters or from stringing collectively a ton of singles to drive house a number of the plodders.
Shutting down the Mets would possibly sound easy – maintain their good hitters off the board – nevertheless it’s not straightforward. Alonso and Vientos crush fastballs. Nimmo and Lindor excel in opposition to chase-seeking secondaries. Iglesias will swing at something and incessantly make contact – and this yr, he’s turning most of that contact into flared singles. One-trick pony pitchers who lean on one or the opposite of a nasty slider or enormous fastball will run into bother in opposition to the Mets.
Fortunately for the Phillies, that doesn’t describe their starters in any respect. Wheeler is a five-trick pony, at minimal: He throws six pitches, and solely his split-change is under common. He additionally has nice command and pitches deep into video games. I imply, clearly he does: He’s one of many absolute best pitchers in baseball, and he has been for the reason that day he went to Philadelphia. Aaron Nola is an ready second banana; he’ll have his best benefit in opposition to Alonso and Vientos because of a hammer curveball.
Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez may have their work minimize out for them on this sequence – lefty sinkerballers don’t match up nicely in opposition to the Mets’ righty energy bats. Nonetheless, they’re wonderful choices as no. 3 and 4 starters. The third and fourth video games of the sequence are sandwiched by journey days, and Wheeler and Nola typically give the bullpen a break on their begins. That units the Phillies as much as go bullpen-heavy when their lefties are on the mound and assault the highest of the Mets order with a succession of nice relievers.
The Philadelphia bullpen was probably the greatest within the majors all yr, a lot in order that it’s nonetheless a high unit regardless of buying and selling away a number of contributing relievers on the deadline. That energy shall be blunted considerably in opposition to the Mets, although; New York completely crushed lefty pitching this yr, and the Phillies have three standout southpaw relievers. The most effective spot to deploy a lefty might be in opposition to the Lindor-Vientos/Iglesias-Nimmo portion of the order, however that’s not even excellent.
Nonetheless, the Phillies are deep. Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, and even José Ruiz deliver strikeout stuff from the suitable aspect. If I had been managing the Phillies, I’d maintain rotating matchups to stop Vientos and Alonso from seeing any of those arms too usually. I’d combine in a number of the good lefties in opposition to them in low-leverage spots, and possibly even prepare for a Taijuan Walker sighting.
Controlling the highest half of the lineup is a number of the problem when going through the Mets, and the Phillies definitely have the arms to do it. However baseball being what it’s, that’s no assure of success. Lindor, Nimmo, and Alonso have hit the most important homers of the yr for the Mets, all three this week. They got here off of righty relievers with ERAs of three.67, 1.98, and 1.25, respectively. A method this sequence may go: Philadelphia sends its greatest pitchers on the Mets, and the Mets come out victorious.
In fact, the Phillies get to bat too. In some methods, they’re constructed equally to their rivals; the highest of their order options two energy threats and a multi-talented shortstop, and the remainder of the hitters aren’t practically nearly as good. Of their case, although, the shortstop looks like a fairly clear third banana as an alternative of the whole offensive id of the workforce. Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the Phillies offense in some ways. They’ve related skillsets and have produced related worth this yr. You’ll wrestle to make them chase. They’ll swing out of their footwear making an attempt to hit homers. They could strike out because of this – however they have a tendency to take action on their very own phrases, taking enormous hacks at pitches that they’ll obliterate in the event that they make contact.
Trea Turner bats between them and does a bit of little bit of every part. I’m anticipating him to amp up the baserunning aggression in October; this was by far the worst baserunning yr of his profession, however the playoffs seem to be a great time to eschew sensible long-term well being administration and put your foot on the gasoline pedal. Even when he isn’t stealing bases and making aggressive developments, although, he’s an excellent hitter. He’ll get to face a ton of southpaws because of his lineup place between two lefty sluggers, and he’s been 10% higher with the platoon benefit over his prolonged profession.
Like its counterpart in New York, the Philly lineup falls off after its high guys. Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm bat fourth and fifth in some order most days, and at instances they’ve been nice: Castellanos has a 132 wRC+ within the second half of the season, and Bohm made the All-Star workforce because of a scorching first half. However that sizzling streak from Castellanos introduced his profession mark with the Phillies as much as a 103 wRC+, and 105 for the 2024 season. In the meantime, Bohm cooled off arduous within the second half (90 wRC+).
I believe the important thing to the Mets offense is how a lot the highest guys can do harm in opposition to excellent opposition. I believe that the important thing to the Phillies lineup, then again, is whether or not the underside half could make life simpler for Harper and associates. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh seem like platoon bats at this level of their careers. Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa are the opposite half of these platoons, however they hardly strike worry into opposing pitchers. J.T. Realmuto is the wild card right here; he bought higher because the yr went on, in stark distinction to what you’d count on from a 33-year-old catcher. If he’s extra MVP candidate than defensive specialist who can hit a bit of, the lineup will look deeper and scarier for Mets pitchers. If he and Castellanos flip into pumpkins, the workforce is perhaps counting on Wheeler and Nola to win a number of 2-1 video games.
Talking of 2-1 duels, the Mets rotation strains up pretty nicely in opposition to the Phillies, although it merely doesn’t have the identical firepower as Philadelphia does in its rotation. Senga will get the beginning in Recreation 1, however with solely 19 2/3 innings pitched throughout all ranges this yr due to a number of accidents, he’s in all probability not going to pitch deep into the sport. Tylor Megill would’ve been subsequent in line to attract that begin, so he’ll presumably be readily available as a protracted reliever if mandatory. Senga’s look may very well be extraordinarily quick; the final time he threw a number of aggressive innings got here in the midst of July in a minor league sport, and even that look lasted solely three innings.
Luis Severino was Senga’s alternative atop the rotation this yr; relying on how Senga seems in Recreation 1, both he or Severino would presumably draw a Recreation 5 task. Due to the way in which the schedule strains up, Severino could be on common relaxation for that one even after he pitches Recreation 2, a boon to the Mets after they performed 5 video games in 4 days this week. The Senga/Megill sport is the hardest one to determine; I believe that it will likely be a de facto bullpen sport until Senga seems dominant and covers no less than just a few innings, which is principally unknowable at this level.
When the sequence shifts again to New York, the Mets will deliver out their lefties: Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana. Manaea was Severino’s equal this yr, and I believe I’d take him over Severino if I had to decide on one among them for one sport solely, however his relaxation schedule received’t enable him to go twice within the sequence. Quintana remains to be the identical pitcher – he’s artful and may nonetheless spin a pleasant curveball, however his nice expertise is in bulk innings, not dominance. If he can get the Phillies chasing within the early going, he would possibly put up a begin to rival his six scoreless innings in opposition to the Brewers in Recreation 3 of the Wild Card Sequence. If he begins falling behind within the depend, it is perhaps a protracted evening for the Mets, and a brief one for him.
I count on the Mets to be extraordinarily cautious about letting Schwarber and Harper see the identical pitcher for a 3rd time. I’d be keen to offer New York’s two lefty starters an opportunity the third time by means of, however I wouldn’t let Megill attempt it if the sport is shut, and I wouldn’t really feel nice about Senga’s (assuming he may even face 18+ batters) or Severino’s probabilities. That places the workforce in a tough spot, as a result of it doesn’t have many efficient lefty relievers. David Peterson is the most suitable choice, however he’s a swingman, not a high-leverage arm. Danny Younger is the one different lefty on the squad, and whereas he’s a traditional sinker/slider LOOGY, I wouldn’t be tripping throughout myself to get him into the sport in opposition to two top-tier sluggers.
In a manner, although, that lack of lefties may very well be releasing. Platoon matchups aren’t as essential as simply utilizing good pitchers, and if the Mets aren’t forcing themselves to play the handedness sport, they’ll flip their greatest relievers unfastened in opposition to the highest of the lineup and work every part else out later. Edwin Díaz is comfy coming into video games earlier than the ninth inning and likewise comfy getting greater than three outs; I’d take him over Peterson and Younger any day. Reed Garrett, José Buttó, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek may all draw lefty-slugger obligation as nicely. The important thing shall be various up the seems whereas deploying good relievers in good spots, which is less complicated mentioned than executed. Carlos Mendoza has executed a great job of it thus far, although. He’ll get an opportunity to sink or swim on an even bigger stage beginning Saturday.
Due to the construction of this text, it in all probability looks like I believe the sequence is a toss-up. I don’t; the lineups is perhaps related, however the rotations aren’t. I’d name the groups evenly matched in Video games 3 and 4, however Wheeler is miles higher than anybody on the Mets workers. That’s two video games the place the Phillies may have a giant benefit within the early innings. Nola isn’t any slouch both. ZiPS offers the Phillies a large 66% likelihood of advancing because of their edge in beginning pitching. Playing markets are practically as bullish; they’ve the Phillies round 65% to win the sequence. Our easy projection-based mannequin offers them a 64% likelihood; PECOTA has it 60/40. The Phillies are positively the higher workforce.
A much less intrepid preview author would possibly depart it at that. I’ll exit on a limb, although, and say that I believe these odds are too low on the Mets. They aren’t 50% to win this sequence, clearly. The Phillies are better-rested and received the NL East by six video games. However the two groups had the identical BaseRuns file. The Mets didn’t simply get sizzling this week; they’ve one of the best file in baseball since June 1. They’ve outscored the Phillies over that stretch and allowed fewer runs. They had been really abysmal within the early going this yr, and full-season stats and projections do a greater job of predicting playoff success than arbitrary-endpoint streaks, however this isn’t some scrappy underdog squad. The Mets are legit and fairly able to going toe-to-toe with anybody on this juggernaut-light yr.
So my prediction? Mets in 4. I’m going in opposition to what the numbers say, and I don’t suppose I’m 50% more likely to be proper. However I do suppose that the broader baseball public is simply too assured in Philly’s probabilities, and I like going in opposition to the grain. So there you have got it. In a matchup the place the groups are extra alike than they’re totally different, small edges may decide the sequence. Gimme “OMG” remixes with Pitbull over a will-they-won’t-they relationship with “Dancing On My Personal,” significantly in the event that they aren’t going with the unique Robyn model. And if I choose the Mets after which they get drubbed in three lopsided video games? Effectively, what’s extra Mets-y than that? It’s a no-lose proposition.