The battle between the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah in south Lebanon has slipped up a few gears since Israel’s coup of the exploding pagers and walkie-talkies every week or so in the past.
The IDF rapidly adopted up that specific triumph with an intense aerial bombardment of the terrorists’ positions and fighters, and all of the indications are that Hezbollah has been hit arduous. They’re very a lot on the again foot, reeling from the onslaught and making an attempt to get well. Which will take them a while.
And but they don’t seem to be completely defeated. They’ve had 18 years to organize for this second, ever since Israel final withdrew its troops from southern Lebanon in 2006 when the extent of its casualties being incurred there turned politically acceptable to the Israeli public.
As Hamas has carried out in Gaza, Hezbollah has used the time to assemble a community of tunnels and strongpoints that are troublesome, and a few well-nigh not possible, to destroy from the air.
So whereas the IDF continues to assault from the air, and regardless of calls from exterior observers for them to desist, Israel is making ready for a floor invasion which can come within the subsequent few days. Former Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat, earlier Minister for Safety and a person with some operational expertise himself, has stated he expects Israel to maneuver within the subsequent 48-72 hours. He could nicely not be improper.
In the meantime on the UN Basic Meeting assembly within the USA this week there have been quite a few requires peace. The US, France, the UK and varied others have even proposed a 21 day ceasefire to permit negotiations to be initiated.
This has been rejected by the Israeli authorities, and Israeli navy chief Lieutenant Basic Herzi Halevi has informed IDF troops that they’re “making ready the method of a manoeuvre, which suggests your navy boots … will enter enemy territory”. His remarks have been printed after Israel referred to as up an extra two reserve brigades “for operational missions within the northern area”. The indicators are ominous.
If the IDF have been certainly to strike into southern Lebanon as appears more and more seemingly, what would possibly the principle goals of the operation be?
Before everything would be the persevering with degradation and destruction of Hezbollah and its sources. When your enemy is down on the canvas then it is essential to not let him get again up; that is no boxing match below Queensberry guidelines. It’s a battle to let the 60,000 or so Israeli residents who’ve left the northern a part of Israel to flee Hezbollah’s rocket barrages return dwelling safely.
It is going to be no straightforward activity. Not solely do the terrorists nonetheless have a sizeable arsenal regardless of Israel’s attrition, they may even be skulking in buildings and caves which they’ve had ample time to organize defensively, and they’re going to even have the benefit of native information of the terrain. The IDF must tread rigorously because it winkles them out, a lot because it has needed to do in Gaza though this time in a much less urbanised context.
Thereafter it is going to search to push the Hezbollah remnants north till they now not pose fairly the identical menace to northern Israel, which suggests primarily past the attain of their quite a few shorter-range unguided rocket weaponry. Realistically this implies past the 40 km vary of its Soviet-era BM-21 and BM-27 a number of rocket launchers.
This is able to equate to a long way north of the Litani River in Lebanon, which runs roughly parallel to the Israel-Lebanon border. It has been used as a demarcation line for the cessation of hostilities in earlier wars, however Hezbollah at all times filters south once more.
It might contain Israel in occupying a substantial chunk of Lebanese territory and there’s no indication that it will relish the chance, but when that’s what it takes to attain their warfare purpose then it’d simply be what they must do. Thereafter either side would in all probability be exhausted and welcome peace negotiations.
That’s the place we’re in the intervening time. Israel is poised to invade. Hezbollah expects the worst, and its sponsor and ally Iran has declined to hitch the fray up to now. The following few days will likely be crucial.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former military officer. Join his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk